Posts tagged ‘Keith Ehlers’

And the Winner Is...

Jeff Charleston, who went nearly wire to wire to win.  Here is the top ten, which yours truly finally managed to crack for the first time.  I picked the fewest correct games, by far, of anyone in the top 10 but got a lot of upset correct and thus scored a bunch of bonus points.  Memphis fans have to be squirming today.  I almost didn't watch the last 2 minutes of the game -- Memphis seemed to have it totally in hand.

BracketRankPointsCorrect GamesUpset Risk %Tiebreaker Total Points (diff)Possible Games
Jeff Charleston11274616.7157 (14)46
Bennett Johnsen2126479.5150 (7)47
Keith Ehlers31154416.7188 (45)44
Kevin Clary #241154213.8176 (33)42
Warren Meyer #251154121.4125 (18)41
Kelly McLean6114476.0135 (8)47
Kevin Clary71134213.7174 (31)42
Aj Dote8112422.5145 (2)42
Steve Jones91094511.4157 (14)45
Tom Kirkendall10108455.2142 (1)45

The whole thing here.

Congrats to Jeff, and he can send me an email if he would like a free copy of either of my books.  And no, Bennett doesn't win 2 copies for being in second. 

Bracket Challenge Update

With just three games to go in the tournament, here are the standings:

3 games remainingMust wins for best finish
Current
rank

(score)
Player
(125 total)
Best
finish

(chance)
Worst
finish

(chance)
Final FewChampion
1 (109)Jeff Charleston1 (25%)13 (12.5%)KansasKansas
2 (108)Ron Gallagher1 (12.5%)11 (12.5%)UNC UCLAUCLA
3 (107)Kevin Clary #21 (12.5%)18 (25%)Kansas UCLAUCLA
4 (104)Craig 1 (12.5%)21 (25%)UNC MemphsUNC
5 (104)Jeff Charleston #21 (12.5%)19 (12.5%)UNC UCLAUNC
6 (103)Jeffrey Peterson2 (12.5%)21 (12.5%)UNC UCLAUNC
7 (102)Stan Brown13 (25%)32 (12.5%)Kansas UCLA
8 (101)briain's2 (12.5%)25 (12.5%)UNC UCLAUCLA
9 (100)Bennett Johnsen2 (12.5%)34 (12.5%)Kansas MemphsKansas
10 (100)Tom Kirkendall1 (12.5%)29 (12.5%)UNC MemphsMemphs
11 (100)Wade Condict #211 (12.5%)35 (12.5%)Kansas MemphsMemphs
12 (100)Nathan Lambert3 (12.5%)35 (12.5%)Kansas UCLAUCLA
13 (99)Andy Nemenoff4 (12.5%)33 (12.5%)UNC MemphsUNC
14 (99)Keith Ehlers1 (12.5%)39 (12.5%)Kansas MemphsMemphs
15 (97)Warren Meyer #25 (12.5%)47 (12.5%)Kansas MemphsKansas

I had show the top 15, of course, just to sneak myself in.  In fact, there are still 6 people who can win.  If you think of the three games yielding 8 possible game outcomes,  Jeff Charleston wins on three of those outcomes, and Ron Gallagher, Kevin Clary, Craig, Tom Kirkendall and Keith Ehlers each will win if one specific combination comes up.

Bracketology Update

Not many people predicted to 12-13 matchups in the second round, but if they had, they would have runup some nice points given our upset-bonus in the scoring system.  Here are the standings to date, which I reproduce only because, well, I am in them:

BracketRankPointsCorrect GamesUpset Risk %Possible Games
Jeff Charleston1743716.752
hopeful2713423.444
Keith Ehlers3703616.748
Warren Meyer #24703321.446
Ron Gallagher5693610.847
Nicholas Stergion ii6693235.343
Dawn Werner7693129.240
Stan Brown8693032.043
Wade Condict #29673525.044
Craig 10673510.347
Paul Noonan11663126.342
Warren Meyer12653414.347

The good news is that both my brackets are in the top 12.  The bad news is that I do a good job every year of picking early upsets and racking up early round points, and then I fall by the wayside in later rounds.  We will see if I can hang in there.  By the way, my loud-mouthed, smack-dealing son is in 76th place.  The leader has 14 of his sweet-16 still intact, while my brackets have 11 and 9 respectively, which are pretty good leading indicators for future problems for yours truly.

One of the reason I like pickhoops.com is that they have some cool analysis tools.  Here is my favorite, analyzing who has the best chances to win:

15 games remainingMust wins for best finish
Current
rank

(score)
Player
(125 total)
Best
finish

(chance)
Worst
finish

(chance)
Super SixteenExciting EightFinal FewChampion
1 (74)Jeff Charleston1 (29.6%)47 (<1%)  
2 (71)hopeful1 (7.1%)90 (<1%)   Wiscon    
3 (70)Keith Ehlers1 (4%)85 (<1%)    Memphs    
4 (70)Warren Meyer #21 (7.2%)83 (<1%)       Xavier 
5 (69)Ron Gallagher1 (<1%)67 (<1%)  
6 (69)Nicholas Stergion ii1 (4.3%)100 (<1%)  
7 (69)Dawn Werner1 (<1%)95 (<1%)    Memphs   Xavier  Memphs
8 (69)Stan Brown1 (19.5%)92 (<1%)  
9 (67)Wade Condict #21 (<1%)95 (<1%)    Memphs   Xavier  Memphs
10 (67)Craig 1 (1.5%)68 (<1%)  
11 (66)Paul Noonan1 (3.1%)101 (<1%)  
12 (65)Warren Meyer1 (2.9%)89 (<1%)  
13 (64)Jeff Charleston #21 (<1%)64 (<1%)UNC      UNC   UNC
14 (63)briain's1 (<1%)66 (<1%)  
15 (63)Kevin Clary #21 (<1%)62 (<1%)  Kansas  Memphs    Kansas 
16 (62)Tom Kirkendall1 (<1%)74 (<1%)    Memphs     Memphs
17 (62)Andy Nemenoff1 (1.6%)85 (<1%)  
18 (62)Random 2x Risk1 (1.6%)104 (<1%) Tenn      Tenn   
19 (61)Derek Jankowski1 (<1%)93 (<1%)   Davdsn  Stanfd UCLA Xavier   UCLA UCLAUCLA
20 (60)Tony Casciano #21 (1.2%)112 (<1%)     Texas   Texas TexasTexas

See the whole analysis here.