The history of this blog has been, except for the last three months, one of me never ever making political prognostications. This is a policy I will return to, as I was completely wrong about this election. Just to rub my own nose in it, this is what I wrote:
I think that "shackled to a suicide bomber" is more apt. Trump is not only going to lose big in this election to an incredibly weak Democratic candidate, but he is also going to kill the Republicans in the House and Senate and any number of down-ballot elections.
Oops. At this point the election is not decided but Trump is clearly competitive and the Republicans look likely to hold on to both houses of Congress.
In business school, there is a famous project we do in marketing that teaches an important lesson. In that project, a bunch of Ivy Leaguers are asked to estimate the percentage of people in the US who snow ski. We all look around the table and say, "I ski and you ski and she skis, so it must be about 80%", when in fact the percentage is in the single digits. The lesson is to not make predictions for whole markets (and countries) based on one's own personal outlook and experience. I and many other clearly did not understand large swathes of the electorate, something I want to think about for a bit. The one thing I am sure about is that my (and many others') attempt to apply a policy framework to this is simply not going to work. Trump is a sort of anti-wonk, a governmental Loki. Policy choices likely don't explain this election.