From the recent exchange activity report (I can't call it their enrollment report because they do not actually report enrollment numbers)
- Number of people added to Medicaid or CHIP: 803,077
- Number of people who have selected** a private plan: 364, 682
The Administration knows, but refuses to tell us what percentage of the 364,682 are eligible for subsidies. By the unfailing rule of political life, this means the news is bad (ie the percentage subsidized is high). We do know the percentage of applicants who were determined to be eligible for subsidies: 41%. Since a lot of people who go through the process are doing it just to see if they get a subsidy, there is good reason to believe that applicants who actually are selecting policies will be subsidized at a higher rate, but certainly no less than 41%. So using that number we come up with
- Medicaid or CHIP: 803,077
- Subsidized private: 153,166 (at least, probably more)
- Entirely private: 211,516 (probably less)
So, at best, only 18% of the people enrolling** in an exchange are doing so with their own money. 82% or more are doing so partially or entirely with taxpayer money. Note that these are all people, by definition, who were paying for their own health care before, so the one thing the exchanges are definitely doing is converting independent citizens to government dependents at an 80% rate.
By the way, I am pretty sure the CBO did not score the PPACA as being "deficit neutral" based on more than double as many Medicaid applicants as private applicants and a less than 20% unsubisidized rate.
** These are not actual enrollments until the customer pays. Essentially these are the number of people who have put a plan in their online shopping cart.