I am not going to add to the confusion on this. For a lot of people who already have health insurance, the answer will be "maybe". Older folks and folks with health problems may see less expensive policies, and younger people will likely pay more.
I do, however, want to add two observations that are often lost in this discussion:
- For the millions of people who have chosen not to buy health insurance and now will be forced to do so by law, they will certainly be paying more. Anything is more than the "zero" which has been these peoples' preference to date.
- A more interesting question is: what will happen to premiums in the second year. Right now, insurance companies are pricing as if all these young people who have not been buying policies will be forced to do so by the law (a key, maybe the key, funding source for Obamacare is forcing young healthy people to buy overpriced policies to subsidize older people). What if they refuse? After all, the penalties in the first several years are not very severe, and Obamacare removes any risk from not being covered, because if one gets sick he can just run and sign up then, like getting home insurance once your house is on fire. The prices on the exchanges in 2014 will be very interesting.