Here is some analysis of these reports. A few things I found interesting
- I have always understood the "trust funds" for these programs were a crock, that we had spent the money in these funds years ago. But the accounting fiction is important for a reason I did not know - when the trust fund is used up from an accounting standpoint (vs. a cash standpoint, where it is not only already used up but never existed) in 2036 or whenever, statutory authority for spending is capped at annual tax collections, which at that point will be way, way below programmed spending levels.
- Medicare alone is projected to grow to 6% of GDP. wow.
- The reality of Obamacare's promises of cost reductions is starting to appear, as already these supposed cost reductions are being discounted by folks who have accountability for getting the numbers right.
One thing to note -- Social Security actually has some shot at being repaired, because benefits are a fixed, predictable amount (as long as your actuarial tables are right). Medicare and Medicaid are far harder, because the benefits are open ended, and every recent "fix" has tended to shift incentives to encourage rather than discourage more spending. Note, for an example, the political pressure to eliminate the part D donut hole that actually is there to provide incentives to camp drug spending and prices.