Huh?

From the NY Times, I am having a hard time reconciling these statements from the same article:

First statement:

The law provides a partial exemption for certain health plans in existence on March 23, when Mr. Obama signed the legislation. Under this provision, known as a grandfather clause, plans can lose the exemption if they make significant changes in deductibles, co-payments or benefits.

About half of employer-sponsored health plans will see such changes by the end of 2013, the administration says in an economic analysis of the rules.

Second statement:

About 133 million Americans are in group health plans from employers with 100 or more employees, the administration said, and most "will not see major changes to their coverage as a result of this regulation."

My translation:  Yes, you will lose your current health plan despite Obama's promises, but he doesn't want you to realize this until 2013, conveniently just after the next presidential election.

  • Dr. T

    The statements are easily reconciled. The grandfather clause is effective only when an employer-based health care plan with benefits similar to the 'ideal' makes no significant changes between the law's enactment and December 31, 2013. However, based on past behavior, it is estimated that 50% of such plans will make a "significant" change sometime during the next three-and-a-half years. That change will make the plan ineligible for the partial exemption, even if the change is one that "improves" (from Obama's perspective) the plan.

    The reason why most workers “will not see major changes to their coverage as a result of this regulation" is that employers with exempt plans, while comprising less than half of all employers, will account for more than half of all workers. Thus, if at least 50% of employees are covered by exempt plans, the statements are reconciled.

    What isn't said is which employee plans will be trashed. Naturally, it is the lower cost, high deductible plans (with or without medical savings accounts). ObamaCare is all about ensuring that everyone is forced into high cost, wide coverage, low deductible plans. A few years later, when people are tired of paying a small fortune for the privilege of waiting in line for mediocre care, they will vote for a single-payer (otherwise known as the taxpayer-funded US government) healthcare system.

  • Hasdrubal

    According to the department of Health and Human Services, now that they have crafted the rules for the law between 39% and 69% of people who currently have company provided health insurance will not be grandfathered in: http://www.john-goodman-blog.com/its-official-51-wont-be-able-to-stay-in-their-employer-health-plan

    I believe the source material can be found here: http://www.federalregister.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2010-14488_PI.pdf