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	<title>Comments on: It&#8217;s Just Going to Get Worse</title>
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	<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html</link>
	<description>Dispatches from a Small Business</description>
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		<title>By: markm</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32811</link>
		<dc:creator>markm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Feb 2010 11:02:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32811</guid>
		<description>High speed rail may make more sense in China; they have 4 times the population as the USA, with a total area just barely smaller. I am also under the impression that the great majority of that population is concentrated in the eastern 1/4 of the surface area. So there are plenty of city-to-city runs short enough that 120 mph with ten minute stops beats 600mph with an hour-plus for loading, taking off, landing, and unloading - and the train stations can be a lot better located than airports are. 

We don&#039;t have any route where the cities are that large and closely spaced except arguably the Boston-NYC-DC corridor, and just try acquiring a new arrow-straight right-of-way through all that development. (Existing RR rights of way aren&#039;t straight enough, and are more valuable hauling freight anyhow.)

Of course, the final Chinese &quot;advantage&quot; appears to be a very fast, cheap, and certain eminent domain process: just bribe a few officials and send hired thugs to kick the people out of their homes and businesses. No extended litigation, only small compensation to pay, and those that complain too loudly can be made to disappear.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>High speed rail may make more sense in China; they have 4 times the population as the USA, with a total area just barely smaller. I am also under the impression that the great majority of that population is concentrated in the eastern 1/4 of the surface area. So there are plenty of city-to-city runs short enough that 120 mph with ten minute stops beats 600mph with an hour-plus for loading, taking off, landing, and unloading &#8211; and the train stations can be a lot better located than airports are. </p>
<p>We don&#8217;t have any route where the cities are that large and closely spaced except arguably the Boston-NYC-DC corridor, and just try acquiring a new arrow-straight right-of-way through all that development. (Existing RR rights of way aren&#8217;t straight enough, and are more valuable hauling freight anyhow.)</p>
<p>Of course, the final Chinese &#8220;advantage&#8221; appears to be a very fast, cheap, and certain eminent domain process: just bribe a few officials and send hired thugs to kick the people out of their homes and businesses. No extended litigation, only small compensation to pay, and those that complain too loudly can be made to disappear.</p>
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		<title>By: markm</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32809</link>
		<dc:creator>markm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Feb 2010 10:44:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32809</guid>
		<description>rxc: High-speed rail &lt;i&gt;must&lt;/i&gt; be pretty near a straight line, so it&#039;s bound to require more property condemnation than most transportation projects. The route also has to be quite flat, which IIRC is going to be quite a problem in CA: lots of tunnels, deep cuts, and filled in valleys (cost aside, consider the environmental impact of all that digging), and where there is flat land, it&#039;s expensive and often full of houses.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>rxc: High-speed rail <i>must</i> be pretty near a straight line, so it&#8217;s bound to require more property condemnation than most transportation projects. The route also has to be quite flat, which IIRC is going to be quite a problem in CA: lots of tunnels, deep cuts, and filled in valleys (cost aside, consider the environmental impact of all that digging), and where there is flat land, it&#8217;s expensive and often full of houses.</p>
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		<title>By: rxc</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32709</link>
		<dc:creator>rxc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32709</guid>
		<description>For comparison, the French are building a new TGV line from Tours to Bordeaux (near where I live), about 300 km long.  They will be spending about 15-25 million euros/km for this line, to drop the transport time between Bordeaux and Paris from 3 hours to 2 hours.  They also hope to extend this line into Spain, where it will meet a similar Spanish line.  This can work here because there is a large collection network of trains to get people from the smaller towns into the major hubs.  I don&#039;t think those links really exist in California.

They are meeting some heavy resistance from farmers who are losing valuable grapes, and the usual NIMBYs.  This is a relatively new phenomena here, though.  When they built the first part of this line from Paris to Tours, it was very close to a straight line, and if your house was in the way, then &quot;tant pis&quot;. Now the French are learning about environmental sensitivity.  It will be interesting to see how they buy/condemn right-of-way in California.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For comparison, the French are building a new TGV line from Tours to Bordeaux (near where I live), about 300 km long.  They will be spending about 15-25 million euros/km for this line, to drop the transport time between Bordeaux and Paris from 3 hours to 2 hours.  They also hope to extend this line into Spain, where it will meet a similar Spanish line.  This can work here because there is a large collection network of trains to get people from the smaller towns into the major hubs.  I don&#8217;t think those links really exist in California.</p>
<p>They are meeting some heavy resistance from farmers who are losing valuable grapes, and the usual NIMBYs.  This is a relatively new phenomena here, though.  When they built the first part of this line from Paris to Tours, it was very close to a straight line, and if your house was in the way, then &#8220;tant pis&#8221;. Now the French are learning about environmental sensitivity.  It will be interesting to see how they buy/condemn right-of-way in California.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32698</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 17:13:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32698</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t know about you, but I wouldn&#039;t pay more than ten bucks to get into a fair.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t know about you, but I wouldn&#8217;t pay more than ten bucks to get into a fair.</p>
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		<title>By: NormD</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32692</link>
		<dc:creator>NormD</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 14:01:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32692</guid>
		<description>That $2.25B comes with strings attached.  If construction does not start by 2012 and complete by 2018 (dates may be off) then CA must refund the money to the Feds.  I can see this being used to beat Californians into providing more funds, ie, if we don&#039;t pass tax/bond thus-and-such we will have to come up with $2.25B!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That $2.25B comes with strings attached.  If construction does not start by 2012 and complete by 2018 (dates may be off) then CA must refund the money to the Feds.  I can see this being used to beat Californians into providing more funds, ie, if we don&#8217;t pass tax/bond thus-and-such we will have to come up with $2.25B!</p>
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		<title>By: delurking</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32690</link>
		<dc:creator>delurking</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 13:35:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32690</guid>
		<description>That typo is quit the understatement.  $114 from LAX to SFO!  $90 from Burbank to Oakland!  Fair?  How about generous?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That typo is quit the understatement.  $114 from LAX to SFO!  $90 from Burbank to Oakland!  Fair?  How about generous?</p>
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		<title>By: Craigo</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32686</link>
		<dc:creator>Craigo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 11:00:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32686</guid>
		<description>It has to be said that the dates and reduction in numbers look more like a Himalayan Glacier in an IPCC report. With about the same prospect of an accurate outcome.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It has to be said that the dates and reduction in numbers look more like a Himalayan Glacier in an IPCC report. With about the same prospect of an accurate outcome.</p>
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		<title>By: Bob Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32684</link>
		<dc:creator>Bob Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:05:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32684</guid>
		<description>Rail is just as bad an idea in China as it is here. &quot;Do it now while labor is cheap&quot; ignores opportunity costs. People-moving rail is only good for China if you&#039;re a freedom-hating Communist, because it furthers government control of people&#039;s movements.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rail is just as bad an idea in China as it is here. &#8220;Do it now while labor is cheap&#8221; ignores opportunity costs. People-moving rail is only good for China if you&#8217;re a freedom-hating Communist, because it furthers government control of people&#8217;s movements.</p>
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		<title>By: me</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32683</link>
		<dc:creator>me</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 06:17:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32683</guid>
		<description>Sometimes, I wish people would just stop unreasonable spending for one day; give all of us who shake our heads in despair waaaay too often a breather.

On a second note, here&#039;s an article about a scenario in which light rail might actually make sense due to drastically different economics:

China is building out their light rail system in a big way. (See: http://blog.foolsmountain.com/2010/02/04/high-speed-rails-in-china/). Now, payoff might not be economically feasible at todays rater, compared to European systems (as the article points out, the economic savings are higher in Europe due to average cost of labor), but there is the argument that exchange rates and cost of labor in China will change soon; at this time, labor is dirt-cheap there right now, so the cost of actually building light rail is at what will probably turn out to be an all-time low, while labor costs will make the investment pay off once they rise. Odd.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sometimes, I wish people would just stop unreasonable spending for one day; give all of us who shake our heads in despair waaaay too often a breather.</p>
<p>On a second note, here&#8217;s an article about a scenario in which light rail might actually make sense due to drastically different economics:</p>
<p>China is building out their light rail system in a big way. (See: <a href="http://blog.foolsmountain.com/2010/02/04/high-speed-rails-in-china/" rel="nofollow">http://blog.foolsmountain.com/2010/02/04/high-speed-rails-in-china/</a>). Now, payoff might not be economically feasible at todays rater, compared to European systems (as the article points out, the economic savings are higher in Europe due to average cost of labor), but there is the argument that exchange rates and cost of labor in China will change soon; at this time, labor is dirt-cheap there right now, so the cost of actually building light rail is at what will probably turn out to be an all-time low, while labor costs will make the investment pay off once they rise. Odd.</p>
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		<title>By: Stan</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2010/02/its-just-going-to-get-worse.html/comment-page-1#comment-32681</link>
		<dc:creator>Stan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 05:14:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.coyoteblog.com/?p=10494#comment-32681</guid>
		<description>Someone should tell Tyler Cowen, judging from his blog he&#039;s a fan.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone should tell Tyler Cowen, judging from his blog he&#8217;s a fan.</p>
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