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	<title>Comments on: Seductive Technocracy</title>
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	<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html</link>
	<description>Dispatches from a Small Business</description>
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		<title>By: Flash Gordon</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14700</link>
		<dc:creator>Flash Gordon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2008 05:16:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14700</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Kevin Drum might start with this from Byron York:&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;On May 23, 2006, as a jury in Houston deliberated the case against top Enron executives Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, a little-known regulatory agency in Washington, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), released a study with the dryly bureaucratic title â€œReport of the Special Examination of Fannie Mae.â€ The document received far less attention than the news from Enron, but its conclusions were stunning. In meticulous detail, it outlined a culture of corruption at the Federal National Mortgage Association â€” better known as Fannie Mae â€” that rivals the most serious corporate scandals in recent years. In this case, however, the main players are Washington insiders â€” some of them prominent veterans of the Clinton administration â€” and the scandalâ€™s effects could ripple through Congress for years.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Read the whole thing, Mr. Drum.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDA4YTY1N2ZhMDhmNjIwNTk4OTI2MDYxZWU4NDg1Y2Q=&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin Drum might start with this from Byron York:</p>
<p><i>On May 23, 2006, as a jury in Houston deliberated the case against top Enron executives Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, a little-known regulatory agency in Washington, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), released a study with the dryly bureaucratic title â€œReport of the Special Examination of Fannie Mae.â€ The document received far less attention than the news from Enron, but its conclusions were stunning. In meticulous detail, it outlined a culture of corruption at the Federal National Mortgage Association â€” better known as Fannie Mae â€” that rivals the most serious corporate scandals in recent years. In this case, however, the main players are Washington insiders â€” some of them prominent veterans of the Clinton administration â€” and the scandalâ€™s effects could ripple through Congress for years.</i></p>
<p>Read the whole thing, Mr. Drum.</p>
<p><a href="http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDA4YTY1N2ZhMDhmNjIwNTk4OTI2MDYxZWU4NDg1Y2Q=" rel="nofollow">http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDA4YTY1N2ZhMDhmNjIwNTk4OTI2MDYxZWU4NDg1Y2Q=</a></p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14699</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:43:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14699</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;The problem with Wall Street&#039;s risk management tools is that they were based on the idea that asset returns are normally distributed.  If you want more detail on what this means and what alternatives there are this is a good place to start your reading: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v456/n7219/full/456173a.html&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The fact remains that a lot of nominally intelligent people--MBAs from Harvard and the like--got it wrong, perhaps because their professors--economists and financiers--relied on bad assumptions about asset returns.  Or perhaps just because of cultural/institutional inertia at the banks.  Who knows.  But those who followed conventional wisdowm here have egg on their face.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The problem with Wall Street&#8217;s risk management tools is that they were based on the idea that asset returns are normally distributed.  If you want more detail on what this means and what alternatives there are this is a good place to start your reading: <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v456/n7219/full/456173a.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v456/n7219/full/456173a.html</a></p>
<p>The fact remains that a lot of nominally intelligent people&#8211;MBAs from Harvard and the like&#8211;got it wrong, perhaps because their professors&#8211;economists and financiers&#8211;relied on bad assumptions about asset returns.  Or perhaps just because of cultural/institutional inertia at the banks.  Who knows.  But those who followed conventional wisdowm here have egg on their face.</p>
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		<title>By: ElamBend</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14698</link>
		<dc:creator>ElamBend</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14698</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;A lot of intelligent guys were selling stuff that they knew as little about as the Realtor selling houses and claiming real estate always goes up.  It was too easy to sell and make money than to worry about the underlying problems of what they were selling.  I&#039;m sure some, maybe many, of them suspected that all was not well; but I presume a lot told themselves, &quot;I&#039;ll get out before it gets bad.&quot;&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A lot of intelligent guys were selling stuff that they knew as little about as the Realtor selling houses and claiming real estate always goes up.  It was too easy to sell and make money than to worry about the underlying problems of what they were selling.  I&#8217;m sure some, maybe many, of them suspected that all was not well; but I presume a lot told themselves, &#8220;I&#8217;ll get out before it gets bad.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: stan</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14697</link>
		<dc:creator>stan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 15:39:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14697</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Wall Street succumbed to hubris.  The tools were bad and they were too confident.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The story is that someone actually did his homework.  Nothing else.  The loans were bad.  Someone understood that the loans were bad.  Everything else follows.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;How brilliant do your analytical tools have to be to figure out that garbage sliced and diced into tranches can&#039;t be anything but garbage?  Only a fool believes that gold can be spun from straw.  Wall Street was preaching that gold could be spun from crap.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wall Street succumbed to hubris.  The tools were bad and they were too confident.</p>
<p>The story is that someone actually did his homework.  Nothing else.  The loans were bad.  Someone understood that the loans were bad.  Everything else follows.</p>
<p>How brilliant do your analytical tools have to be to figure out that garbage sliced and diced into tranches can&#8217;t be anything but garbage?  Only a fool believes that gold can be spun from straw.  Wall Street was preaching that gold could be spun from crap.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14696</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:40:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14696</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;You&#039;re overstating your case here.  The issue with Wall St is that its risk-management models are faulty.  They are based on the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, when Taleb and Mandelbrot among others have noted that asset returns are, in fact, not normally distributed.  &lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;You are correct when you state that regulators have neither the ability nor the incentive to solve Wall Street&#039;s problems but it is nonetheless incorrect to say that Wall Street had a lot of smart people who could have exploited weaknesses in the &quot;CDO/CDS pyramid game.&quot;  Call it whatever you like but Wall Street&#039;s ability to price and manage risk simply has fallen short.  You can&#039;t take advantage of that which you cannot accurately assess.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;What Wall Street needs is not more or different regulation.  What it needs are better tools with which to quantify and manage risk.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re overstating your case here.  The issue with Wall St is that its risk-management models are faulty.  They are based on the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, when Taleb and Mandelbrot among others have noted that asset returns are, in fact, not normally distributed.  </p>
<p>You are correct when you state that regulators have neither the ability nor the incentive to solve Wall Street&#8217;s problems but it is nonetheless incorrect to say that Wall Street had a lot of smart people who could have exploited weaknesses in the &#8220;CDO/CDS pyramid game.&#8221;  Call it whatever you like but Wall Street&#8217;s ability to price and manage risk simply has fallen short.  You can&#8217;t take advantage of that which you cannot accurately assess.</p>
<p>What Wall Street needs is not more or different regulation.  What it needs are better tools with which to quantify and manage risk.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark Alger</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14695</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark Alger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 13:55:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14695</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;It&#039;s a matter of position. As you observe, the government sinecure isn&#039;t it. If a single smart guy COULD fix GM&#039;s problem, he would be Chairman of GM.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;GM&#039;s problems stem, in large part, from government meddling, from enabling unions to use &quot;bargaining&quot; methods that should mandate their disbandment and barring from the marketplace to safety and pollution standards that appear to have been pulled out of some congressional staffer&#039;s nether regions.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Adding &lt;i&gt;another&lt;/i&gt; bureaucracy to the mix surely can&#039;t help.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;M&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a matter of position. As you observe, the government sinecure isn&#8217;t it. If a single smart guy COULD fix GM&#8217;s problem, he would be Chairman of GM.</p>
<p>GM&#8217;s problems stem, in large part, from government meddling, from enabling unions to use &#8220;bargaining&#8221; methods that should mandate their disbandment and barring from the marketplace to safety and pollution standards that appear to have been pulled out of some congressional staffer&#8217;s nether regions.</p>
<p>Adding <i>another</i> bureaucracy to the mix surely can&#8217;t help.</p>
<p>M</p>
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		<title>By: dsm</title>
		<link>http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html/comment-page-1#comment-14694</link>
		<dc:creator>dsm</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 06:39:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrenmeyer.net/coyote_blog/2008/11/seductive-technocracy.html#comment-14694</guid>
		<description>&lt;p&gt;Here&#039;s one guy who called &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/18/banking-useconomy&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;bullshit&lt;/a&gt;. There are some great quotes in that article.&lt;/p&gt;

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s one guy who called <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/18/banking-useconomy" rel="nofollow">bullshit</a>. There are some great quotes in that article.</p>
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