The size of the economic stakes is enormous. Every single recession since World War II coincides with an oil shock. Oil is an essential commodity.

Daniel Yergin’s history of the petroleum industry notes that after 1973, the price of oil quadrupled from less than $2 a barrel virtually overnight. And it didn’t stop rising until it reached the previous peak price (until now) in 1982 ($42/bbl in ’82 dollars). This caused the worst recession since the Great Depression because the U.S. couldn’t produce its way out of this shortfall. Remember: U.S. domestic production peaked in 1971. Think “Stagflation”!

At no time during this astronomical rise in the price was more than 3% of the world’s oil supply impacted. Yergin calls the U.S. payments to the Arabs the greatest peacetime transfer of wealth in history.

Anyway, do you think our meddling in the Middle East is because we like the weather? Or that stationing troops in Saudi Arabia — Ben Laden’s actual complaint, BTW — was an accident? Or putting them near pipelines in Turkey, or on the sea lanes at the choke points in the Persian Gulf?

And what about that Iraq war thingy, was that just because they hate our freedom, or because Saddam was such a threat? None of that has turned out to be true, yet we’re still there, building large, permanent bases (it takes decades to fully develop oilfields).

Was the Iraq war to quell terror? Nope. One study says terror is up 700%, worldwide, and the State Department says something like 400%, since the invasion. It was to get the oil.

Notice that even the recent sovereignty negotiations with the Iraqi government re-introduce western oil companies into an arena Saddam kicked them out of years ago — developing Iraqi oil. The reason the Iraqis are so intransigent is not that they hate our freedom. They object to us expropriating their resources. The reason they balked at passing legislation to divide the oil revenues was that it too brought back the western oil companies. Did you hear that the Iraqi oilfield workers actually had a strike about that? (Where was the Western media….? As far as I know, only Dennis Kucinich reported this, and was pretty much ignored. See http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-naiman/kucinich-seeks-to-strip-o_b_43398.html)

Heck, the CIA replaced Mossadegh in Iran (the duly elected leader) with an awful tyrant (the Shah) because Mossadegh was threatening to nationalize BP’s oil assets there. Do you think we’d do less in Iraq? Incidentally, when the people who overthrew the Shah raided the houses of the his secret police (SAVAK), they discovered basements with ovens for roasting people, and stacks of severed limbs. Yep, they hate us for our freedom; that must be it!

Sorry, but saying that “security” for overseas oil sources isn’t important fails every test for credibility I can think of. And historically American resource grabs with the military or by proxy wars are so frequent that the idea we wouldn’t use our military to protect, or at least control such a resource is simply not believable either.

Ask yourself, for example, what would happen if Saddam had been able to plant a dirty bomb over the Saudi Gahwar field (the majority of their production), essentially putting it out of business for the half life of plutonium. You may believe in the Easter Bunny for all I know, but believing that the U.S., with its massive military, isn’t using that same military to control and protect for domestic consumption the resources of the Middle East is beyond the pale.

That is not the truth, yoshidad, but I’m confident that no one will ever convince you. That George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as well as environmentalists make that claim about “essential” security or defense costs still doesn’t make it the truth.

Boy! Talk about a distinction without a difference! So what happens at the offramp?

BTW, the talk of subsidies ignores the auto-centric local street design. This is as important as what is the funding source, IMHO. The street in front of my sprawl home has 12 foot travel lanes — identical to the freeway’s — that are such an invitation to speeding that the street standards require a bend every 1,000 lineal feet. Otherwise, speeding cars would mow down the neighborhood kids. This is the source of lots of extra pavement, and suburban spaghetti streets.

And what about the pathetic three-foot sidewalks that terminate at the edge of the subdivision? If I want to walk abreast with someone and carry on a conversation, I must walk in the gutter.

Even if my property taxes, not gas taxes, paid for that, who paid for the Traffic Engineer to come up with those extraordinarily auto-centric design guidelines?

FYI, a pedestrian-friendly street would have set-back sidewalks (you know, with the mower strip) at least 4′ wide, vertical curbs, small curb radii. On my street, the curb radius — that quarter circle at the corner — is something like 20′. This means that I have further to cross at the corner, exposing me to more dangerous traffic, and the cars can take the corner at higher speeds — a double whammy. A 3′ curb radius is a commonplace at older, pedestrian-friendly street corners.

And what about the lighting? Pedestrian-friendly lights are 10′ – 14′ tall on 75′ centers. I have 21′ tall lights that are fine if you’re behind a tinted windshield, but seem like interrogation lighting if you actually try to walk at night.

This stuff doesn’t show up in the finances, but we tend to take for granted that pedestrian discomfort is a necessary evil. Gee, I wonder why pedestrians don’t walk to the transit stops?

> John Dewey writes: “Your statements about military spending have nothing to do with who pays for highways. Nor do those statements have anything to do with the price of gasoline. Gasoline prices are not lower because of military spending in the Middle East.”

Mr. Dewey, do you also believe that your purchase at the mall doesn’t also pay for the security guard?

I’ll agree that W’s agenda included big profits for Halliburton and Blackwater, while making oil more expensive and controlling it at the source, but if you don’t believe that the U.S. sends plenty of troops to Turkey and Ecuador on pipeline duty, …and if you don’t believe that such security is essential to retrieving the oil …and if you don’t believe the cost of that military protection for the oilfields and pipelines is unpaid in the price at the pump…

Well, I just want to play poker with you because you’ll believe *anything*.

The truth is that the enormous security costs to control and get that imported oil are essential and *not* paid at the pump, and the gas tax barely pays for the petroleum-intensive infrastructure we have, no matter where you divide what it pays from what it doesn’t. These facts means oil is subsidized, and additional oil consumption is encouraged — orders of magnitude more than any transit subsidy, BTW.

This is just as true as saying that because oil producers get a special write-off (the depletion allowance) oil is subsidized. And does Exxon get to write off its lobbying costs? Subsidies distort markets and encourage consumption of oil rather than exploration of the infrastructure alternatives to sprawl, in particular.

> clouse writes: “…has troops stationed in 144 countries overseas.” …is a misleading statement. If the U.S. has an embassy in that country, we probably have U.S. troops there.

That’s a statement I read about where we have troops stationed, not embassy guards (sorry, no citation. It was in a nybooks.com article). Private firms like Blackwater often guard embassies (as they do in Iraq), so what you believe may or may not be true. But what about this statement: “The U.S. spends more than the rest of the world combined on its military.”…? Either one makes my point.

That the U.S. has the worlds largest military budget (more than the rest of the world combined) is indisputable, and a large part of that expenditure is to provide security for the resources that we must import because we cannot produce them domestically. In the last 37 years, the U.S. has gone from 30% oil imports (at $1.75/bbl) to 70% oil imports (at $100+ per bbl). No amount of drilling offshore or in ANWR will have more than an insignificant impact on this, either — and that’s according to the API (the oil lobby). Railing against those darned enviros who prevent such drilling is just a paid advertisement for ANWR lease holders. Oil companies hold leases on far more offshore oil that they can drill for *now* than what they’re complaining about, and they haven’t even got the equipment to drill that.

So imports are not optional or discretionary. The U.S. economy *must* have them, and a considerable amount of lobbying and/or expense has been undertaken to ensure no alternative is viable, too. The subsidies cited above are part of that expense.

> clouse writes: “…if the price of gas was $10 – $15 a gallon, the unsubsidized price”

> And where are you getting this dollar amount for unsubsidized gas? BTW, in an earlier post you just had $10, now it is $10-15

The sources vary. The World Resources Institute (wri.org) estimated the U.S. subsidy for petroleum, including roads unpaid for by gas taxes, military security provided overseas, and tax breaks like the depletion allowance was $300 billion annually. That includes $50 billion for military expenditure, and the estimate was made in 1989, before both Persian Gulf wars, so it’s really got to be higher now. They estimated this subsidy subtracted $5 from the real price per gallon, but I’ve since read another source (sorry, no citation) that said $15/gallon.

But why quibble about the amount? The subsidy clearly exists. Subsidies distort markets (not that there has *ever* been a really free market for petroleum — thank you OPEC and John D. Rockefeller). The public demand for more efficient transportation (and other uses of energy, but 70% is transportation in the U.S.) would be *much* larger than it is now without such a subsidy distorting things.

BTW, An even crazier bit of business is in the accounting. Oil production is, by modern accounting standards, counted as income. But a more accurate accounting would classify it as natural capital. If the distinction sounds meaningless, try applying for a loan based on your income, then tell the banker you’re counting your savings account (capital) as income. You will be ejected from the bank as a crazy person. But that’s how oil accounting works now. I couldn’t make it up.

A sensible person sets aside money to replace capital that is wearing out or depleting, just as a sensible person would spend part of the gas tax to fund transit. We would be sensible too if we had something that didn’t use as much petroleum to get around. A sensible person would also not expect the infant alternative infrastructure to be productive right away, just as he would not expect his infant child to immediately earn a living.

Nevertheless, aside from pointing out real public policy stupidity, plenty of posting to this blog acts as though transit is going to have zero ramp-up to immediate peak productivity. Not realistic, IMHO.

> markm writes: [Yoshidad comments in brackets] The most salient characteristics of mass transit (including busses,though less so than rail):

- It does not go all the way to where you want to go [Only if you build the city that way]
- It does not leave when you want to leave [Only if you under-fund transit so you have long waits - I've often spent more time waiting for my wife than for a bus in San Francisco]
- At every stop, many passengers wait while relatively few get on and off. [And this is different from ferrying teenagers around how? How many meandering trips have you taken in an auto with stops for others than yourself. Couldn't the bus be more direct if different family members have different destinations? This could be a wash.]
- Each stop is quite expensive in fuel, because of the need to accelerate a behemoth back up to speed. [Because people are sharing the ride, this is inconsequential. The figures I read say overall bus is 1/8 as expensive as single-occupant autos per passenger mile]

> markm continues: Mass transit can only beat or match individual vehicles in transit time when it is given an unobstructed right of way to compete with cars snarled in traffic jams. [You mean like Curitiba's dedicated busways for their Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)?] Subways sometimes make sense (given sufficient density, which you won’t find in any American city constructed since automobiles became the main means of transport) because their right of way is constructed where it isn’t blocking any actual or potential road traffic. Light rail and busses hardly ever make sense, because the only way they can move at all in a city is by blocking other traffic, or by having dedicated roadways that reduce the space available for other roads. [What, no credit for the congestion reduction wrought because transit takes autos off the roads?]

What we should be working towards is self-driving cars that cooperate in keeping traffic flowing. [This is called "Automatic People Movers" (APM). You can read Roxanne Warren's "The Urban Oasis: Guideways and Greenways in the Human Environment" to find out all about this. She's the source for the 1/8 cited above, BTW. Her point about APM-friendly land use: You must have at least 30 dwelling units/acre -- that's three-story apartments -- before APMs make sense.]

[Planner Robert Cervero observes that the pedestrian-friendly, mixed-use, and typically mixed-density neighborhoods where transit and neighborhood commerce are viable are typically a minimum of 13 dwelling units/acre. This does not have to be slightly denser than duplex (10du/acre). It can be mansion, mansion, eight-plex, mansion, mansion, mansion on 6-to-the-acre lots. In other words, it is indistinguishable from old, nicer neighborhoods for which people now pay premiums.]

[Finally, who cares about whether transit is slightly less comfortable than, oh, I don't know, personal helicopters, if you can't afford the helicopter? And what is it exactly that gives anyone the sacred right to business as usual? If conditions change don't we need to expect change in our own lives, or are those habitual ways we deal with transportation sacrosanct? And which god blesses this arrangement? And why does Iran refer to the U.S. as the "headquarters of global arrogance"?...]

[If you remove the energy subsidies from the market, people will be far more worried about getting around (and getting fed) than about an extra wait at the bus stop. The real question is whether we can afford to wait to start conserving. People may dispute the importance of climate change (climate instability, really), or beating up Iraqis for their oil, or even that the U.S.' current dependence on imported oil that contributes mightily to its trade deficit, but all three? Come on, people, suck it up. We're not so *special* that we deserve to get a lollipop every time we throw a tantrum. Ditto for oil.]

- It does not go all the way to where you want to go
- It does not leave when you want to leave
- At every stop, many passengers wait while relatively few get on and off.
- Each stop is quite expensive in fuel, because of the need to accelerate a behemoth back up to speed.

Mass transit can only beat or match individual vehicles in transit time when it is given an unobstructed right of way to compete with cars snarled in traffic jams. Subways sometimes make sense (given sufficient density, which you won’t find in any American city constructed since automobiles became the main means of transport) because their right of way is constructed where it isn’t blocking any actual or potential road traffic. Light rail and busses hardly ever make sense, because the only way they can move at all in a city is by blocking other traffic, or by having dedicated roadways that reduce the space available for other roads.

What we should be working towards is self-driving cars that cooperate in keeping traffic flowing.

This is a misleading statement. If the U.S. has an embassy in that country, we probably have U.S. troops there.

“…if the price of gas was $10 – $15 a gallon, the unsubsidized price”

And where are you getting this dollar amount for unsubsidized gas? BTW, in an earlier post you just had $10, now it is $10-15

Why do you claim that my statement is untrue, and then use completely irrelevant statements to try and prove your assertion?

My statement was that “highways are paid through fuel taxes and tolls”.

You stated that road improvements are not paid for by fuel taxes and tolls. Highways are not the same thing as roads, Yoshidad.

Roads to provide access in a community – access for grocery supply trucks, for ambulances, for schoolbuses, for police cars, for trips to the gym, etc, etc, – are not usually paid for through fuel taxes and tolls, but rather through community tax assessments. But remember that roads are not highways. Dan’s question and my reply referred to highways.

Your statements about military spending have nothing to do with who pays for highways. Nor do those statements have anything to do with the price of gasoline. Gasoline prices are not lower because of military spending in the Middle East. In fact, there is pretty good indications that gasoline prices are higher than they would otherwise be because of military spending in the Middle East.

The truth, apparently, is that truck weights have been increasing incrementally over the years and roads would last *much* longer if only cars drove on them. Trucks often do more than $50,000 (or whatever the figure is) worth of damage to the roads. Another hidden subsidy.

Rail, on the other hand, got the Union – Pacific subsidy (free right-of-way and land), I suppose truckers could legitimately complain about that particular line getting a subsidy they didn’t share. I’m just guessing that the Interstates were a bigger subsidy, though.

> Dan [playing devil's advocate by turning the argument around]: “Why should I pay taxes for highway improvements when I take the train to work?”

> David: Dan, highways are paid for through motor fuel taxes and tolls. Some of those fuel taxes are paid by the trucking companies which transport the goods almost everyone in the U.S.

This is the first untrue statement: Gas taxes do not pay for all the road improvements used by autos and trucks, nor do they pay for the cost of the injuries that originate there, nor do they pay for the military protection for overseas sources of petroleum. Since 70% of U.S. petroleum consumption is imports, sending our troops out on pipeline duty is not an insignificant expense. The U.S. currently spends more than the rest of the world combined for its military, and has troops stationed in 144 countries overseas.

The World Resources Institute estimated in 1989 that in the U.S., petroleum is subsidized to the tune of $300 billion annually. This includes the items above plus tax breaks for petroleum producers like the depletion allowance — a special write-off.

So if we’re subsidizing petroleum use, the price at the pump is actually artificially low — and that estimate of $300 billion does not include the now-inflated military costs post-Gulf-Wars I & II.

> David: The answer to your question is that you pay for very little of highway improvements if you do not drive.

Again, untrue. The military expenses of protecting pipelines and oilfields, and the depletion allowance are enormous subsidies, so is the subsidy to the health care system for auto- and truck-related injuries. *Everybody* pays more taxes because of this.

> David: On the other hand, 15% of fuel taxes are being diverted to mass transit, to subsidize riders such as yourself. I see no reason why I should subsidize your ride.

This is the same argument as “I’m childless, why should I pay school taxes,” and includes about as much foresight. How interested would you be in transit if the price of gas was $10 – $15 a gallon, the unsubsidized price?

The comparatively tiny amount given transit is not well-spent, but it’s what we have to invest in alternative infrastructure to the sprawl of auto-only roads. I won’t quarrel about how transit available in the U.S. is pathetic, but complaining about transit while saying the auto travel subsidies are OK is straining at a gnat, swallowing a camel.

Sadly, David’s insights fairly represent the state of consciousness about U.S. infrastructure and the public realm, generally. Of course now he’ll say “Oh thank you for pointing out the error of my ways! I’m ever so grateful!”…8^)

I’ve traveled to many (25+) of the large and medium-sized cities in the US for my job, and while most are more spread out than downtown DC is, I haven’t seen anything which comes anywhere near the DFW area for distance between points.

Rail is phenomenal when you’re dealing with lots and lots of people going the same basic direction – inner suburb to a variety of downtown destinations, for instance. However, it takes a lot of capital, and bad decisions linger on like dead fish. Buses are certainly a better solution in many cases – they are a LOT more flexible, for instance – but it is mistaken to say that busses are always better than trains.

If commutes are sufficiently unpleasant, or parking sufficiently scarce, trains look better and better. I doubt that Dallas will ever experience the kind of automotive congestion that the DC area gets on a daily basis (which is why so many folks use the metro in the first place.

In DC, it’s often faster to take transit than it is to deal with fighting traffic AND parking. I can’t imagine that that would be true in Dallas.

YMMV.