A reader pointed me to this article about a really amazing piece of government science:
A strong and deadly
earthquake is virtually certain to strike on one of California's major
seismic faults within the next 30 years, scientists said Monday in the
first official forecast of statewide earthquake probabilities.
They calculated the probability at more than 99 percent that one or
more of the major faults in the state will rupture and trigger a quake
with a magnitude of at least 6.7.
Uh, okay. Next up: California demonstrates more than a 99% chance that I will be dead in 100 years. I would also give them the false precision award:
An even more damaging quake with
a magnitude of 7.5 or larger, the earthquake scientists said, is at
least 46 percent likely to hit on one of California's active fault
systems within the next three decades.
Are they really sure that its not 46.1%?
"The report's details should
prove invaluable for city planners, building code designers, and home
and business owners who can use the information to improve public
safety and mitigate damage before the next destructive earthquake
occurs," said geophysicist Ned Field of the Geological Survey, who
headed the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, which
developed the forecasts.
Really? How? They should have given me the money and I would have written a two sentence report: "You are going to have an earthquake in the future -- duh, its California. Plan for it."
Update: A reader notes that this was funded by some insurance companies or trade group, and the whole point is the unspoken message "insurance rates are going up." You guys are so cynical.