Bracketology Update

Not many people predicted to 12-13 matchups in the second round, but if they had, they would have runup some nice points given our upset-bonus in the scoring system.  Here are the standings to date, which I reproduce only because, well, I am in them:

BracketRankPointsCorrect GamesUpset Risk %Possible Games
Jeff Charleston1743716.752
Keith Ehlers3703616.748
Warren Meyer #24703321.446
Ron Gallagher5693610.847
Nicholas Stergion ii6693235.343
Dawn Werner7693129.240
Stan Brown8693032.043
Wade Condict #29673525.044
Craig 10673510.347
Paul Noonan11663126.342
Warren Meyer12653414.347

The good news is that both my brackets are in the top 12.  The bad news is that I do a good job every year of picking early upsets and racking up early round points, and then I fall by the wayside in later rounds.  We will see if I can hang in there.  By the way, my loud-mouthed, smack-dealing son is in 76th place.  The leader has 14 of his sweet-16 still intact, while my brackets have 11 and 9 respectively, which are pretty good leading indicators for future problems for yours truly.

One of the reason I like is that they have some cool analysis tools.  Here is my favorite, analyzing who has the best chances to win:

15 games remainingMust wins for best finish

(125 total)


Super SixteenExciting EightFinal FewChampion
1 (74)Jeff Charleston1 (29.6%)47 (<1%)  
2 (71)hopeful1 (7.1%)90 (<1%)   Wiscon    
3 (70)Keith Ehlers1 (4%)85 (<1%)    Memphs    
4 (70)Warren Meyer #21 (7.2%)83 (<1%)       Xavier 
5 (69)Ron Gallagher1 (<1%)67 (<1%)  
6 (69)Nicholas Stergion ii1 (4.3%)100 (<1%)  
7 (69)Dawn Werner1 (<1%)95 (<1%)    Memphs   Xavier  Memphs
8 (69)Stan Brown1 (19.5%)92 (<1%)  
9 (67)Wade Condict #21 (<1%)95 (<1%)    Memphs   Xavier  Memphs
10 (67)Craig 1 (1.5%)68 (<1%)  
11 (66)Paul Noonan1 (3.1%)101 (<1%)  
12 (65)Warren Meyer1 (2.9%)89 (<1%)  
13 (64)Jeff Charleston #21 (<1%)64 (<1%)UNC      UNC   UNC
14 (63)briain's1 (<1%)66 (<1%)  
15 (63)Kevin Clary #21 (<1%)62 (<1%)  Kansas  Memphs    Kansas 
16 (62)Tom Kirkendall1 (<1%)74 (<1%)    Memphs     Memphs
17 (62)Andy Nemenoff1 (1.6%)85 (<1%)  
18 (62)Random 2x Risk1 (1.6%)104 (<1%) Tenn      Tenn   
19 (61)Derek Jankowski1 (<1%)93 (<1%)   Davdsn  Stanfd UCLA Xavier   UCLA UCLAUCLA
20 (60)Tony Casciano #21 (1.2%)112 (<1%)     Texas   Texas TexasTexas

See the whole analysis here.  


  1. Jeff Charleston:

    I'm going to have to print this page so that when I crash and burn, at least I was in 1st place for a little while 🙂

  2. BobH:

    Given that I had Duke going all the way, I don't want to read anything involving brackets.