Bracketology Update

Not many people predicted to 12-13 matchups in the second round, but if they had, they would have runup some nice points given our upset-bonus in the scoring system.  Here are the standings to date, which I reproduce only because, well, I am in them:

Bracket Rank Points Correct Games Upset Risk % Possible Games
Jeff Charleston 1 74 37 16.7 52
hopeful 2 71 34 23.4 44
Keith Ehlers 3 70 36 16.7 48
Warren Meyer #2 4 70 33 21.4 46
Ron Gallagher 5 69 36 10.8 47
Nicholas Stergion ii 6 69 32 35.3 43
Dawn Werner 7 69 31 29.2 40
Stan Brown 8 69 30 32.0 43
Wade Condict #2 9 67 35 25.0 44
Craig 10 67 35 10.3 47
Paul Noonan 11 66 31 26.3 42
Warren Meyer 12 65 34 14.3 47

The good news is that both my brackets are in the top 12.  The bad news is that I do a good job every year of picking early upsets and racking up early round points, and then I fall by the wayside in later rounds.  We will see if I can hang in there.  By the way, my loud-mouthed, smack-dealing son is in 76th place.  The leader has 14 of his sweet-16 still intact, while my brackets have 11 and 9 respectively, which are pretty good leading indicators for future problems for yours truly.

One of the reason I like pickhoops.com is that they have some cool analysis tools.  Here is my favorite, analyzing who has the best chances to win:

15 games remaining Must wins for best finish
Current
rank

(score)
Player
(125 total)
Best
finish

(chance)
Worst
finish

(chance)
Super Sixteen Exciting Eight Final Few Champion
1 (74) Jeff Charleston 1 (29.6%) 47 (<1%)    
2 (71) hopeful 1 (7.1%) 90 (<1%)    Wiscon     
3 (70) Keith Ehlers 1 (4%) 85 (<1%)     Memphs     
4 (70) Warren Meyer #2 1 (7.2%) 83 (<1%)        Xavier  
5 (69) Ron Gallagher 1 (<1%) 67 (<1%)    
6 (69) Nicholas Stergion ii 1 (4.3%) 100 (<1%)    
7 (69) Dawn Werner 1 (<1%) 95 (<1%)     Memphs   Xavier   Memphs
8 (69) Stan Brown 1 (19.5%) 92 (<1%)    
9 (67) Wade Condict #2 1 (<1%) 95 (<1%)     Memphs   Xavier   Memphs
10 (67) Craig 1 (1.5%) 68 (<1%)    
11 (66) Paul Noonan 1 (3.1%) 101 (<1%)    
12 (65) Warren Meyer 1 (2.9%) 89 (<1%)    
13 (64) Jeff Charleston #2 1 (<1%) 64 (<1%) UNC       UNC    UNC
14 (63) briain's 1 (<1%) 66 (<1%)    
15 (63) Kevin Clary #2 1 (<1%) 62 (<1%)   Kansas  Memphs    Kansas 
16 (62) Tom Kirkendall 1 (<1%) 74 (<1%)     Memphs      Memphs
17 (62) Andy Nemenoff 1 (1.6%) 85 (<1%)    
18 (62) Random 2x Risk 1 (1.6%) 104 (<1%) Tenn       Tenn   
19 (61) Derek Jankowski 1 (<1%) 93 (<1%)    Davdsn  Stanfd UCLA Xavier    UCLA UCLA UCLA
20 (60) Tony Casciano #2 1 (1.2%) 112 (<1%)      Texas    Texas Texas Texas

See the whole analysis here.  

  • Jeff Charleston

    I'm going to have to print this page so that when I crash and burn, at least I was in 1st place for a little while :-)

  • BobH

    Given that I had Duke going all the way, I don't want to read anything involving brackets.