Apparently, there are some dangers with getting too confident about your computer modeling of complex systems:
Computers don't always work.
That was the lesson so far this month for many so-called quant hedge
funds, whose trading is dictated by complex computer programs.
The markets' volatility of the past few weeks has taken a toll on
many widely known funds for sophisticated investors, notably a
once-highflying hedge fund at Wall Street's Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Global Alpha, Goldman's widely known internal hedge fund, is now
down about 16% for the year after a choppy July, when its performance
fell about 8%, according to people briefed on the matter.
This kind of reminds me of another kind of computer modeling of complex systems.