Phoenix Envy

Today I read one of the most bizarre articles I have read in quite a long time.  Murray Whyte of the Toronto Star (HT: Junk Science) seems to have developed a fantasy that climate change will drive people out of Arizona and back to Cleveland, Buffalo and Toronto.  Uh, yeah.  The article is laden with shoddy science, gross contradictions, bad economics, and a recurrent envy of wealth and success.  The article is so much of a mess that I just can't resist fisking it in detail, despite its length. 

Before I begin, though, I am not necessarily a huge Arizona booster.  Phoenix works pretty well for me at this point in my life, but I have lived in many great places.  And I am the last one to criticize anyone who decides that they just can't live in a place where it is 110F for 6 weeks straight.  That being said, lets get into it.  The article is titled: 

Climate Change Herald Mass Migration:  Concerns
raised as the U. S. Southwest grapples with historic drought, water
supply depletion and the creeping sense that things can only get worse.

We will get into all this later, but you gotta love the "creeping sense that things can only get worse."  Who has this sense, other than the author?  Phoenix is one of the most optimistic and positive places I have ever lived.

The state of Arizona has more than 300 golf courses, a booming economy,
endless sunshine and, at last count, at least five Saks Fifth Avenue
department stores "” in short, nearly everything the well-heeled
sybarite would need.

He sets the tone right up front.  This article is not about climate or rain or anything else.  It is about envy and a distaste for other people's wealth and success.

There's just one thing missing: rain.

For the past
month, not a drop has fallen in Maricopa County, home to greater
Phoenix, the state's economic engine and fastest-growing hub. Over that
period, temperatures have hovered five to seven degrees above the
30-year average, at one point holding steady at over 43C for 10
straight days, while hundreds of brush fires burned statewide.

Its the freaking Sonoran desert!  We go months without rain.  We are supposed to go months without rain.  We average like 8 inches a year.  This county went months at a time without rain long before human beings burned their first molecule of fossil fuels.  If we got much more rain than this, all of our Saguaro cactuses would die.

And 43c is 109F.  We almost always go 4-6 weeks with temperatures over 109.  And he is saying this is 6C (10F) more than normal.  Get real!  I can't remember any June or July we ever went even 5 straight days under 100F during this part of the summer. By the way, Arizona's highest June temperature was recorded in 1994, its highest July temperature in 1905, and its highest August temperature in 1933. So much for record highs of late. (Maybe one reason it seems to be getting hotter is that they are measuring the temperature of asphalt parking lots).

"And they're still building billion-dollar houses, right in the
middle of the desert," says Paul Oyashi, incredulous. "It doesn't seem
rational, does it?"

Holy Crap!  Billion dollar houses!  Our retractable roof football stadium didn't cost a billion dollars, Canadian or US.  Oh, and you see that having gone 4 paragraphs without being snide about wealth, he needed to get back to this topic.  And who the $%@!! is Paul Oyashi?

In a word, no. Rational, some would say,
would be a mass migration from the drought-ravaged American southwest,
where Southern California just experienced its driest 12-month period
in recorded history, to more verdant climes.

One such place?
Cleveland, the battered hub of Cuyahoga County, where Oyashi sits as
director of the department of development. "We don't have earthquakes,
we don't have brush fires, we've got all the fresh water you could ever
want," Oyashi says. "That's logic. But the problem is, it flies in the
face of reality."

So this Oyashi guy is the development guy for Cleveland?  Who made the Toronto Star a shill for the Cleveland chamber of commerce?  Is it really this writer's premise that we are on the verge of a reverse migration from Phoenix to Cleveland?  My sense is that we are not on the verge of such a reverse migration, and this is a chance for everyone in the Rust Belt to lament that fact.

At first glance, the crises
of the rust belt and the Southwest would seem unrelated. They are, in
fact, inexorably linked. Each has what the other does not. In Phoenix,
tremendous affluence; in Cleveland, and in Detroit, Toledo, Youngstown,
Buffalo, Rochester, Thunder Bay and Sault Ste. Marie, abundant,
near-endless water "“ in the Great Lakes alone, as much as 25 per cent
of the world's supply.

Note the writer implicitly accepts the zero-sum wealth fallacy -- in his eyes, wealth is a natural resource just like water.  Cleveland has water, Phoenix has wealth.  I won't get into this fallacy much here, but suffice it to say wealth is not something that springs magically from a well.  More here.  For a hundred years, Cleveland was a wealth-creation machine.  To the extent they are not today, they might check their tax and regulatory policies.

And as the Southwest and parts of the
Southeast grapple with historic drought, water supply depletion "“
earlier this year, Lake Okeechobee in Florida, a primary water source
for the Everglades, caught fire "“ and the creeping sense that, with
climate change, things can only get worse, a new reality is dawning:
that logic, finally, will have a larger role to play in human migratory
dynamics, continent-wide. With it come not just doomsday scenarios, but
for certain urban centres left for dead in the post-industrial
quagmire, a chance at new life.

Wow, where to start?  Anyone note the irony of Cleveland pointing fingers at someone because their lake caught on fire?  Not that he bothers to explain why a lake catching on fire is related to climate change or even drought.  And why on an article on the Southwest is the only example of water shortage taken from Florida?

But what you really need to note is the arrogant technocratic bent of the author.  He is saying that all you idiots in Phoenix are defying reality, and that finally maybe you will start making the right choices.  This is typical elitist crap.  In the author's world, anyone who makes a choice the author would not is making a wrong choice.

"Sticking a straw in the Great
Lakes is not a solution to Phoenix's water problems," says Robert
Shibley, director of the Urban Design Project at the State University
of New York at Buffalo. "Maybe it's time to really think about what
constitutes need and stop spending money to build carrying capacity in
places that don't have it by nature, and start investing in places that
do."

Shibley has long been a champion of Buffalo's dormant
potential "“ a potential reduced by half or more through the latter part
of the 20th century, as the population fell below 300,000 from a
historic high of more than 700,000.

OK, now we quote a second guy about problems in the American Southwest.  This guy is from Buffalo, New York and is a promoter of the city of Buffalo.  Why is the Toronto Star giving these guys paid advertising for their causes under the guise of a news article?  And who the hell ever suggested sending water from the Great Lakes to Phoenix?  This is a "straw" man if I ever heard one.  Even if we started building pipelines east, there would be no reason to go past the Missouri or Mississippi.

And I love this "investing in carrying capacity" thing.  What the hell does that mean?  Yeah, we have to build infrastructure when the city grows.  We have to look for water, you have to pay for snow plows.  To build in the desert, we have to pipe in water to survive.  So what?  Buffalo and Toronto and Cleveland have to truck or pipe in coal and heating oil in the winter to survive.  What's the difference?

He suggests that in the
Great Lakes basin, where less than half a per cent of the world's
population sits within easy reach of a quarter of the planet's fresh
water, the opportunity for harmony exists. In a perfect world governed
by reason, Shibley says, the only robust economic centre in the region
would serve as its heart. And that would be Toronto.

Oh my God, what a statement.  Humanity's last hope to live in harmony with nature is to move to the Rust Belt, home of a disproportionate number of America's Superfund sites and the burning Coyahoga River.  These are cities that still use the Great Lakes as a toilet, dumping tons of raw sewage out in the lakes every day.

That's an
issue for international bureaucrats to solve. But the reality is this:
according to the U.S. government, the population of the United States
is expected to reach 450 million by 2050 "“ an increase of almost 50 per
cent. The predicted pattern of settlement for these new citizens will
take them to the seven most built-out regions of the country "“ Arizona,
Texas, Florida and California among them.

Have you seen Arizona?  Is this guy really arguing that Arizona is more built-out than Michigan, New York, and Ohio?

"You're going to have
150 million people living in at least seven of the major regions that
don't have water, don't have carrying capacity, can't feed themselves,"
Shibley says. "It's an ecological disaster waiting to happen. So
there's a good reason to think that people should come back to the
Northeast, where we have the carrying capacity, and have the water."

First, we have water.  We don't even have rationing here in Phoenix, and have not in my memory.  What does "have no water mean?"  The issue with Phoenix water is that we have about the cheapest water in the country.  Any overuse (whatever that means) of water here is because politicians pander to citizens and set the price very low.  So yes, I have a big lawn that seems nuts in the desert, but that is because my water bill here is less than half of what it was in Seattle(!)  Raise the price, and I would probably xerascape my lawn.

And what city in the Great Lakes area "feeds itself?"  No one in American cities feeds themselves.  Its called division of labor.

Some have already taken notice. Last year, The Economist
ranked Cleveland the most liveable city in America (26th in the world)
based on five categories: stability, health care, culture and
environment, education and infrastructure. Among the booming cities of
the Southwest, only Los Angeles and Houston cracked the top 50. Phoenix
didn't make the list, falling behind Nairobi, Algiers and Phnomh Penh
among the world's top 126 urban centres.

LOL.  I love it, we're behind Nairobi in some survey.  Look, there is a huge disconnect in this whole argument.  If Cleveland is really more liveable, then people will move there.  But the author is saying that people are moving to Phoenix instead.  So the theme of the article is that, what?  Phoenix has a problem with too many people moving in and has a problem with too many people moving out?  This is back to the technocratic elitism.  The author is just upset that ordinary people don't do what journalists tell them they should do.

Water is a factor. It
is already a significant issue in the major regions Shibley mentions
which, not coincidentally, depend on the same diminishing source for
much of their hydration.

In 1922, seven states "“ many of them,
like Nevada, Arizona, Texas and California, desperately arid "“ signed
the Colorado River Compact, which divvied up the mighty waterway's
seemingly abundant flow.

But recent observation of the river is
alarming. Only two per cent of the river's water makes it beyond the
U.S. border, where large Mexican cities dependent on its bounty are
left with a trickle "“ much less than they need. With climate change,
river flow has been dwindling, due, among other things, to decreasing
snowfall and less consequent spring runoff, which forms a significant
part of the Colorado River basin's lifeblood.

The river is the
main water source for more than 30 million people stretching from
Colorado in the north all the way down to the U.S.-Mexico border. By
the end of the century, inflow to the river (which includes runoff and
tributaries) is expected to drop by as much as 40 per cent.

First, who is saying that climate change is affecting the flow of the Colorado River?  Annual variations certainly affect it, but no one, and I mean no one, has created a climate model with the resolution to say that if there is substantial global warming in the future,the effect on the Colorado River flow will be X or Y.  Even the IPCC admits it really doesn't have a clue how world temperature changes might affect river flows, or the water cycle in general.  People always want to assume that hotter means drier, but hotter also means a lot more ocean evaporation which can translate into more, not less, precipitation. 

The problem with the use of the Colorado is not climate, but price.  As mentioned above, Phoenix has among the lowest water prices in the country.  In addition, farmers in Arizona and Southern California, who use most of the water despite the snide remarks about golf courses and billion dollar homes, get rates subsidized even lower.  Letting water prices rise to a real supply/demand clearing price that matches demand to river flow would solve the water "crisis" in about five minutes.

At
the same time, climate change projections show temperatures in the most
parched regions of the Southwest increasing between five and seven
degrees. That would make Phoenix's hottest days well over 54C.

Five to seven degrees C are at the high, worst case end of the IPCC projections, which are themselves grossly overstated for a number of reasons I wrote here and here.  Also, much of the warming would be winter nights -- you just can't add the global warming projections to the daytime maximums -- this is plain ignorant.   One thing I agree with -- if our daytime temperatures were to reach 54C, which is over 129F, I will be moving. 

In
Arizona, though, these warnings seem to fall on deaf ears. "The Greater
Phoenix region continues to bust at the seams," says Christopher Scott,
a research professor of water resource policy at the University of
Arizona in Tucson. "People look at this and think, `This can't go on,
can it?'"

But it does, and faster than anywhere else in America.
From 1990 to 2005, the population of Greater Phoenix grew 47.7 per
cent. In Scottsdale, a posh, affluent corner of Greater Phoenix that,
despite the lack of moisture, has more golf courses per capita than
anywhere else in America, growth was 72.1 per cent over the same
period.

Altogether, Greater Phoenix will likely crest at 4
million people some time this year, making it the fourth-largest
metropolitan area in America. By mid-century, some estimates suggest it
will reach 10 million, leaving Phoenix and Tucson fused in the desert.
"We'll basically be one massive urban corridor," Scott says.

Hey, he quoted a guy from west of the Mississippi!  This is the same kind of language that every anti-growth person uses in every city.  And by the way, there is that class thing again -- "posh, affluent."  And what does "bust at the seams" mean?  Phoenix has some of the least-bad traffic of any major city, we have sufficient water, sufficient power, lots of raw land, etc.

Phoenix
receives water from the Colorado through canals hundreds of kilometres
long, pumped through parched landscapes and small communities along the
way that take their fill. It is, essentially, a city that shouldn't be
there, so distant is the water supply.

"Shouldn't be there," by what definition?  Here is what that means:  "I, the author, don't think there should be a city there."  OK, don't live here.  Couldn't I write this sentence instead, "Cleveland receives petroleum from Texas and the Middle East in pipelines hundreds of miles long to provide needed heat in their cold winters.  Its is, essentially, a city that shouldn't be there, so distant is its energy supply."  Jeez, why is it we can have a global economy and division of labor and move resources around the world, but we have to build cities right next to water sources.  What about Aluminum, oil, gold, bauxite, lead, zinc, and iron?  Must we only build cities where all these are near by as well?

Scott, who has studied
water supply issues from India to Mexico to West Africa, has seen no
end to water-appropriation schemes in development-crazy Arizona.
"Piping in sea water from the Sea of Cortez in Mexico, desalinating it,
and then piping the salty brine back into the ocean "“ that's the kind
of hare-brained notion I've heard here," he says. "Do I consider these
things tenable? Not at all. But these are proposals people are talking
about seriously, in public, and they're getting a lot more play."

Scott
worries that technology may well make such things possible, but at a
destructive energy cost that simply exacerbates the problem. "We're
already starting to ask questions about the larger issues associated
with pumping in all that water along those canals "“ the energy costs,
and the carbon impact associated with it," he says. "They may solve the
water issue short-term, but they pull the sustainability rug out from
under you in the process."

We now see the author's real position.  He is not really lamenting the lack of water in the Southwest - he likes it.  He wants to drive people out.  We see he and professor Scott here actually lamenting the fact that technology might solve the water problem.

As to the sustainability issue, its absurd.  I will admit I don't know the figures, but I would be shocked if moving water around was even 0.1% of US energy use.  And besides, we move everything else around the world, moving water is trivial.

Finally, I don't really want to accept the author's premise that CO2 reduction is so critical, but if I were to accept it, I might point out that most of our electricity in Phoenix is provided by America's largest nuclear plant supplemented by natural gas, while mid-Western cities are fed mostly by big old honkin coal burning plants.  I would put our electric generation carbon footprint up against most any Rust Belt city.

The long-term solution, of course, is
to relocate people where they can comfortably exist. (Oyashi certainly
knows a place where you can get a decent house on the cheap.) In a free
society, of course, forced migration isn't really an option.

Do you get the sense he says the last line with a frustrated sigh, lamenting the fact that he can't force people to live where he thinks they should live?

But
as the sustainability crisis worsens, "usually economic forces will do
it for you," says Robert McLeman, a professor of geography at the
University of Ottawa. "When cities have to build new infrastructure and
to jack up taxes to cope, when the cost of running a household becomes
prohibitive, people will move."

Fine, but I will bet you a million dollars our taxes in Phoenix are a lot lower than they are in Toronto. And I know for a fact, since I almost moved there once, that our cost of living is a lot lower.  So maybe this infrastructure and sustainability crisis in Phoenix is a chimera?  Maybe its just wishful thinking?

..."Once the heat becomes unbearable, they may find the
freezing cold a little more bearable"“especially if it's not quite so
freezing cold as they remember."

It won't happen without help. In
Buffalo, Shibley speaks of a federal urban sustainabilty plan that
funnels federal money to the Great Lakes region to help draw population
back. It's been more than 30 years since the U.S. had a comprehensive
national urban plan. Looming ecological crises in burgeoning urban
centers more than justify a revival. "Cities don't grow by topsy, it's
not a thing of nature "“ it's a function of public policy," he says.

Oops, we seem to be abandoning the whole "free society" thing above.  Sure looks like they want to use federal law and tax policy to drive migration where they want it to go, against where people are moving currently of their own free will.  Oh, and city growth is NOT a function of public policy.  Cities grew up and evolved long before government ever took a heavy hand in their development.

But
a significant piece is missing, McLeman warns. "These cities will have
milder climates, be easier to live in, and cheaper," he says, "but
ultimately, they'll have to have the jobs to go with them."

Oyashi
is painfully familiar with the concept. Cleveland may have a surfeit of
cheap, liveable housing and an abundance of fresh water, but its
problems are legion. Abandoned industrial sites litter the area, too
big or too expensive to put to other purposes. Small victories pale in
the face of greater challenges, like trying to convince Ford not to
close two of its three plants in the region. "We've got some dinosaurs
walking around here," he says.

Speaking of public policy and taxation, you don't think that different public policy choices in Cleveland vs. Phoenix might have a teensy bit to do with this?

But those problems, endemic
rust-belt-wide, are just the most visible. High crime rates,
languishing schools and spiralling urban poverty plague Cleveland, too.
Phoenix, for all its money, can't make it rain any more than Cleveland,
with all its water, can print the money it needs....

Gee, the relative growth in Phoenix vs. the lack thereof in Cleveland sure is a head scratcher.  Its incredible that people would tolerate long transportation distances for water just to escape things like high crime rates, languishing schools and spirally urban poverty.

He lays the responsibility at the federal
government's door. "It's not like we have a policy that says, `You
know, we should have a national policy that provides incentive for
people to live in ecologically sustainable areas,'" he says. "What we
have here is `Go wherever you want, do whatever you want, and the
government will follow with its chequebook.' You get this haphazard
checkerboard of winners and losers, rather than directed development in
the regions that can sustain it. It's crisis management."

Yes, its just awful that the government lets people live wherever they want and then puts infrastructure in the places people choose to live.  So haphazard!  People are doing things that are not controlled or directed!  Eek!Clearly the author thinks the government should build the infrastructure wherever it wants to, and then force people to live in those places.   We elites know better!  We will tell you where you should live!  And by the way, who in the hell anointed the Rust Belt with the title of "most sustainable area."  And what is sustainability?  Couldn't I argue that all those midwest cities are sitting on valuable cropland or forest land, and that Phoenix is the most sustainable because we are just building on empty desert?  And if there is such a thing as sustainability in city development, who decided that the proximity of fresh water was the #1 be-all end-all component?

So, I will make a counter-proposal.   Rather than focusing on cities, let's focus on agriculture, because water IS a be-all end-all component to agriculture.  Much of the water we use in the Southwest is for agriculture, and I
don't think that agriculture would be here without huge subsidies. Frankly, the sustainability problem of agriculture in the desert is orders of magnitude worse than that of cities here.  So here is the plan:

1) Sell water in Arizona for a price that better matches supply and demand

2) Stop subsidizing water for agriculture

3) Stop sending farm subsidies, such as for cotton, to people to grow crops in the desert.

This would relieve a taxpayer burden AND it would likely shift farming out of the Southwest to places like the Midwest.    As a result, you would get a migration of farmers and agriculture back east and you would free up a lot of water in the southwest so more people can live here, where they really want to live.    But of course, this is not what the author wants.  He wants more people in the cities, paying absurdly high Detroit property and income taxes.  Well, good luck.

Update:  Large follow-up post to this one, including research on Arizona water use and how the Rust Belt treats the Great Lakes like a toilet here.

  • BobH

    Good job. I was wondering about this line, though it is off the general topic of the article: "large Mexican cities dependent on its bounty are left with a trickle."

    Which large Mexican cities would be dependent on the Colorado? I have heard for years that Mexican farmers are complaining (probably justifiably) about not getting a fair share of the water, but there aren't any big cities in that area (San Luis is about 100,000 or so).

  • http://thelibertypapers.org/ Brad Warbiany

    Great post... As usual.

    I'd consider Phoenix myself, except for one thing. I prefer my steaks rare, not my own flesh. I just can't understand how you folks can live somewhere where the heat is so unbearable. I'd rather pay the taxes, deal with the traffic, and live near the assholes of SoCal than subject myself to that heat. I don't like weather over 80 degrees, much less 110. I simply could not handle it.

    Granted, I'm a 250-lb guy who grew up in Chicago and wears shorts in 50 degree weather, so I'm not quite normal.

  • http://austinzoning.typepad.com/ AC

    Phoenix is the 14th largest metro area; it's nowhere near the 4th largest.

  • http://voidwhereprohibited.typepad.com David

    I lived south of Buffalo for 9 years. I'd much rather live here in Phoenix than deal with cold winters, more snow than I care to think about, and rainy summers. I liked living in Western New York but I really missed the sunshine. Phoenix suits me better.

  • http://voidwhereprohibited.typepad.com David

    Oh and Phoenix is the fifth largest city in the US.

    Phoenix stats

  • http://comuse.blogspot.com Allen

    Leave it up to Canadians to mix up Phoenix being the 4th largest city with being the 4th largest metro.

    I take issue with the water for 30 million figure. Sounds like someone looking at a map, seeing where the river runs and assuming all the population of all the states relies on the Colorado. Here in Colorado it varies a lot. On the eastern plains the farmers are draining the Ogalala [sic] aquifer to grow their corn (hey, it's a tropical grass; it needs lots of water). Water sources for the Front Range (where the vast majority of the states population lives) vary but most of it comes from the sources other than the Colorado. Keep in mind the Rio Grande, South Platte, Arkansas, and other rivers originate here. I would imagine other states are in the same situation.

    I looked at Phoenix before moving. I figured I was just as bad off as I was in Minnesota. Six months of stuck inside during the winter versus 6 months stuck inside during summer. I didn't look at all at moving to Cleveland, Toronto, Cincinatti, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Indianapolis and others like that because, well, they don't have jobs. And when I do get a "hey we've got a 12 month contract in Detroit" inquiry, I thank them for their interest but I'd have to make X amount more per hour to make up for the taxes. I looked at places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise, Salt Lake City, Denver and Tuscon Albuequerque not only because of the mountains but more so because of their relatively low housing prices (yes, I know Phoenix and Vegas have seen a spike), their high job growth, and relatively tame taxes. Having a more mild winter was a nice bonus; but if I was worried that much about the weather I'd move to Bermuda.

    I'm glad that you point out the water issue as being a stinker. The cheap water is an issue. The more water costs, the more incentive places have to use it more wisely.

  • Craig

    "It is, essentially, a city that shouldn't be there, so distant is the water supply."

    Phoenix is where it is precisely because of the availability of huge underground water supplies. The aquifer exists because 2/3 of the state run-off has drained through the confluence of six (I think) rivers. These rivers are dry most of the year, but for million of years have channeled high country rain and snow melt through the Phoenix area on the way to the Colorado River. That aquifer gave rise to the huge farming (cotton and citrus) industry of the early 20th century. As farms have been retired, the homes actually use less water than the farms they replaced.

    The aquifer has been drawn down, but is still huge. And the area is just beginning to use its Colorado River water entitlement. The area uses very little of its Colorado River entitlement.

    There are certainly limits to Phoenix's growth, but water is not likely to be one, as long as it is used wisely. You are certainly correct that water is insanely cheap in this area. So to use it wisely, it must be priced accordingly.

  • Jim Rockford

    What happened to kill the great industrial centers of Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, and the like?

    1. Outsourcing to Mexico and China, which started decades ago with baby steps to the South. Where land was cheaper, unions less powerful, and the corruption-fed cost of living was not as high (means operating costs lower).

    2. Liberal-PC-multi-culti public safety policies led to pandering to various minority groups. Whites working and middle class fled. Not liking being crime victims.

    3. Increased control by various ethnic groups led to corrupt machine politics, and with cheap land elsewhere and mobile capital, new business formation went elsewhere and existing businesses moved or expanded elsewhere.

    4. Increased international competition destroyed company towns: Buffalo was dependent on Xerox and Kodak, Detroit on the Big 3, and Pittsburgh on US Steel. All of which faced huge foreign competitors like Fuji or Toyota or Mitsubishi who ate the US companies lunch.

    5. Increased corruption (see #3) led to higher and higher taxes, with land constrained around bodies of water (cities can only grow so much). Leading to escalating housing prices in the few nice (read: white-middle class) areas free of crime. Cities like Phoenix or Dallas can expand 360 degrees. Not so say Chicago, constrained by Lake Michigan.

    None of these factors has any relevance to the weather. It's mostly about social mobility following capital and business mobility. People moved to where the jobs were. The jobs moved there because costs were lower, particularly corruption, public safety, and housing-cost-of-living. Cleveland could in theory offer businesses and people a better deal, but they'd have to compete on things that matter (weather generally doesn't):

    *Public safety ... i.e. low crime through vigorous policing and sentencing.
    *Low cost / High quality housing.
    *Business friendly economies.

  • markm

    It seems like Phoenix has been supposed to be about to run out of water for as far back as I can remember - and that's over 45 years.

    As our host says, most water issues are greatly exacerbated by subsidies from federal taxes resulting in far below market prices to water users. He says Phoenix water costs for a household are $17/month. How much do sewage costs add to that? I'm paying $130 a quarter for water + sewage in Manton, Michigan, a small town with a plentiful water supply running right through it's middle; 50 years ago, that river also powered the town electric plant.

    However, I'm pretty sure that, "These are cities that still use the Great Lakes as a toilet, dumping tons of raw sewage out in the lakes every day" hasn't been true for over thirty years. Nixon created the EPA, and such cities were their first target. There still is an appreciable amount of industrial emissions that can't be filtered from the waste-water, and occasionally some city sewage system floods out and raw sewage floats out to the lakes, but the main water problem now is all the crap that's on the lake and river bottoms from before they put any controls on emissions at all.

  • http://www.atlasblogged.com Wulf

    Why is the Toronto Star giving these guys paid advertising for their causes under the guise of a news article?

    Wait... think about this. The article appears in the Toronto Star. His audience is in the Great Lakes. While I am not disagreeing with your overall points (in fact the post is great, as was the one back in April), you must realize that the cities around the Great Lakes identify with the lakes and with one another. Anything that could have a big impact on the lakes from the American side is obviously something that Toronto residents would like to be aware of.

    Murray Whyte is a staff reporter for a newspaper, and he has to earn his living. He's not a climatologist, an economist, or any other shade of scientist. Plain and simple, that's why.

    And who the hell ever suggested sending water from the Great Lakes to Phoenix?

    It's not like this is a new concept. An unjustified fear, perhaps, but not new. This is why it's in the news right now. And there are people trying to pump water from the lakes into the Mississippi Basin (see this article). This causes those pesky slippery slope fears in the uneducated. Maybe nobody in Phoenix has made this suggestion, but the difference between New Berlin, WI and Phoenix is just one of degree, right? /sarcasm

    What I think this issue really needs is some bad puns. I mean, this Great Lakes Compact could be a watershed moment in American nationalist federalism.

  • http://voidwhereprohibited.typepad.com David

    Allen said: "Six months of stuck inside during the winter versus 6 months stuck inside during summer."

    Six months inside during summer??? I don't think so. I don't feel stuck inside during the warm months of June, July, and August. Maybe you've been listening to those California whiners. Come into town. Jack up housing prices. Then complain about the heat.

  • Turmbar

    Buffalo was not dependant on Xerox and Kodak- thats Rochester. It was really dependent on its position on shipping through the Erie Canal, so alternate routes really hurt. And its decline has been going on since the 50's.

    But just so I get this straight.... we are supposed to allow unfettered access by illegal aliens but the citizens of the country are expected to apply to the government if they want to move to a different city?

    And how is desalination a "hare-brained" idea when the commenter notes in the next breath that it may be technologically possible.

  • rufus

    I read, somewhere, where it's, already, cheaper to desalinate water in S Cal than it is to pipe water down from N. California. On top of this, GE says they will cut the cost of desalination by 90% in the next ten years.

  • http://ettubloge.blogspot.com/ ettubloge

    Great post because it is a perfect example of the application of sound economic principles to elitist claptrap. We will only see more examples of this class envy BS as the Presidential election gets closer.

    Murray Whyte may be a nobody or a liberal star (excuse my ignorance of him), but his comments deserved the expert skewering of Coyote Blog. With people like Whyte, wealth is always static to be shared equally, people never make rational choices and need the educated to dictate what is best for them and last, but not least, golf courses are an abomination. This last assumption of Whyte's deserves universal scorn.

  • sergio

    Coyote:
    As someone who took 45 years to escape from the Cleveland area (and I use the term intentionally), Phoenix has Cleveland beat hands-down. Biggest problem there is clouds: if you saw the sun at all from November through March you wondered if the gods were displeased. I had to fly somewhere to remember what the sun looked like during the winter. I've been here 7 years and have no plans to leave!

    Like you, I had a higher water bill in Stow, OH (between Akron and Cleveland) than I do here in Chandler.

    Now, it's a cheap shot to say the Cuyahoga River "caught fire". Actually, there was a fuel oil spill on the river and the spilled fuel burned. Yes, the river and Lake Erie was a mess in the late 60s but so were the Cleveland Indians. Both have improved dramatically since. Don't forget, the Indians got "snowed out" of their home opener this year, for 4 days straight in early April. Must be global warming, oops, climate change.

    This article is more "global warming", class envy nonsense. I had a good laugh at it. That's all it is, a joke! I travel to Northeast Ohio on business often and it feels like a dying, "ghost town" there every time compared to the dynamism of Phoenix.

    And, it seems to me that if there truly is a shortage of water, food, arable land, and the like, then we ought to have people live in areas like the Sonoran Desert and save the fertile, moist Midwest for agriculture. A lot more water is used in AZ for agriculture than for residential and commercial needs.

    I'll cheerfully take 3 months of heat here and 9 months of quite decent weather, with plentiful sunshine, over nice summers in Ohio and 9 months of clouds / rain / sleet / snow / slush, etc. in Cleveland. No contest. I tell people I'm not tough enough to live there any more. About 1 week at a time is all I can take!

  • http://bhayden.blogspot.com/ Bruce Hayden

    Was Texas really in the Colorado River Pact? That seems a bit suspicious. When I lived in Austin, I always pointed out that the river running through it was "A" Colorado River, not "The" Colorado River. Over the decades, I have followed the Colorado River from start (where I will be today), to finish, including down many of its major tributaries, and don't remember ever being close to Texas. Indeed, there would seem to be the small matter of the Continental Divide making sure that no Colorado River water ends up in the Lone Star state.

    You may be right that AZ isn't using up its Colorado River allocation yet, but that is because CA is using it up for them. They have been told to cut back, and are trying, but...

    I do think that Phoenix and environs would do better and be a better place to live if they would just cut back on water usage. I find Carefree/Cave Creek much nicer because of the lower humidity. It just doesn't make sense to have so many lawns in the middle of the desert (and did someone mention golf courses?) When I worked there, I worked with a lot of people who had been there most of their lives, and they all seemed to have noticed a significant rise in the humidity - and as noted, that doesn't come from the desert surrounding Phoenix.

    But I happily moved from Austin, TX to Phoenix, AZ (actually, initially to Glendale, which is just west of the city of Phoenix). Yes, the heat is intense for four or so months a year. But everyone has airconditioning, and it isn't that bad. I should note that Las Vegas, growing even faster, is withing a degree or two of being as hot, but has winds that in the summer make it unlivable, as compared to Phoenix.

    Indeed, I find living around Denver, w/o air conditioning, harder than living around Phoenix with air conditioning.

    Next, there is a huge difference numerically between the Phoenix metro area and the city of Phoenix. I spent most of my time in Phoenix working along I-17, which is west Phoenix (city), and then ultimately living in north central Phoenix. But I rarely got further east than mid-Scottsdale. Then, when I closed on my house, I had to drive to the closing, which turned out to be on the east side of the metro area. It took me almost an hour to drive from my credit union on the very eastern edge of the city along AZ 202, to the closing. The metro area is huge now.

    Finally, why would someone want to move from the Rust Belt to Phoenix? Besides the change in attitude, what they don't have that the Rust Belt has is Winter. I love the winters here in CO. But my mother grew up in Chicago, and always thought that our winters here were mild. She is one of many I have known from the north-eastern mid-west who couldn't wait to get out of the brutal cold you find there in the winters.

    So, what you are trading is hot and muggy in the summers and brutally cold and humid in the winters for very pleasant in the winters and very hot, but relatively dry in the summers (alleviated to a great extent by air conditioning). My vote is AZ every day.

  • Daniel Maloney

    I have been living in Phoenix since 1962,when it was PARADISE,in every sense.
    My career forces me to travel all over the world,spending time in truly depressing locales from Pittsburgh to Dublin,Ireland.
    My point is we do not need swimming pools,so many golf courses,greedy home builders and foreign invaders.
    The City Fathers,led by Sheriff Joe must stop the building by levying huge taxes on real estate
    developers.Enormous taxes on swimming pool owners,
    no new pools and charge a massive tax on people who want to move here from the snow/rust belt,California,build the fence!It sounds as if I
    kidding-but I am dead serious.
    I think of how beautiful the desert was before all the people moved here-because now it is almost ruined.
    Finally,if someone wants to build a house,they
    MUST refurbish an older existing place,only.No more concrete.It is a sin what has happened to our God-given Desert.