Comments on: You Too Can Be Billy Beane http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html Dispatches from a Small Business Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:39:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Steve http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html/comment-page-1#comment-5779 Steve Wed, 06 Jun 2007 17:00:03 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html#comment-5779 <p>Damn, Austin Contrarian beat me to it. In the bottom of the 9th inning, tie game, 2 runs (or 11 runs) is no more valuable than one. Bunting may or may not make sense, but you need to look at the increased (or decreased) likelihood of scoring just one run from bunting. This is not that rare a situation. Basically, the closer and later the game, the more you're likely to play for one run. Also, the better the pitcher, the more likely you are to want to bunt.</p> Damn, Austin Contrarian beat me to it. In the bottom of the 9th inning, tie game, 2 runs (or 11 runs) is no more valuable than one. Bunting may or may not make sense, but you need to look at the increased (or decreased) likelihood of scoring just one run from bunting. This is not that rare a situation. Basically, the closer and later the game, the more you’re likely to play for one run. Also, the better the pitcher, the more likely you are to want to bunt.

]]> By: JEH http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html/comment-page-1#comment-5778 JEH Wed, 06 Jun 2007 14:13:27 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html#comment-5778 <p>Re: Exercise. I believe the .300 singles hitter has a .4938 run expectancy when leading off, the .258 doubles and singles hitter an expectancy of about .4865. So the singles hitter is a slight favorite.</p> Re: Exercise. I believe the .300 singles hitter has a .4938 run expectancy when leading off, the .258 doubles and singles hitter an expectancy of about .4865. So the singles hitter is a slight favorite.

]]> By: AustinContrarian http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html/comment-page-1#comment-5777 AustinContrarian Wed, 06 Jun 2007 02:32:18 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html#comment-5777 <p>On bunting: The run expectancy goes down when you trade a base for an out. But the run expectancy is inflated by the prospect of multi-run innings. It doesn't necessarily follow that the chance for a single run goes down. I.e., your chance for a big inning goes down when you take that first out, but perhaps the chance for a single run goes up. Managers apparently believe that, because that's usually the only time they bunt (other than with pitchers in the NL) -- when they absolutely must have one run. I'd like to know whether that's true. </p> <p>BTW, Bill James has convinced me that stealing is usually a bad idea -- how many people consistently get caught less than 26% of the time? -- but Dave Roberts' steal in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS was one of the great moments in baseball, IMHO. </p> On bunting: The run expectancy goes down when you trade a base for an out. But the run expectancy is inflated by the prospect of multi-run innings. It doesn’t necessarily follow that the chance for a single run goes down. I.e., your chance for a big inning goes down when you take that first out, but perhaps the chance for a single run goes up. Managers apparently believe that, because that’s usually the only time they bunt (other than with pitchers in the NL) — when they absolutely must have one run. I’d like to know whether that’s true.

BTW, Bill James has convinced me that stealing is usually a bad idea — how many people consistently get caught less than 26% of the time? — but Dave Roberts’ steal in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS was one of the great moments in baseball, IMHO.

]]> By: Ming Jack Po http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html/comment-page-1#comment-5776 Ming Jack Po Tue, 05 Jun 2007 20:21:59 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2007/06/you_too_can_be_.html#comment-5776 <p>I can't say I'm a big fan of baseball, but Moneyball was a kickass book. Having spent some time at a hedge fund, the whole thing was just so brilliant to me....</p> I can’t say I’m a big fan of baseball, but Moneyball was a kickass book. Having spent some time at a hedge fund, the whole thing was just so brilliant to me….

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