Comments on: The Peak Whale Theory http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html Dispatches from a Small Business Sun, 12 Feb 2012 09:39:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: markm http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2524 markm Tue, 25 Apr 2006 22:08:34 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2524 <p>"The price of oil rises because it's getting scarcer. The price will not fall until an alternative way to run cars is established." Several alternative ways to run cars are known. Except for turning waste fryer oil into biodiesel (which is obviously only good for limited quantities), they are all probably more costly than burning petroleum, even now. When the price rises high enough, you'll see competition from the biodigesters Bridget mentioned, oil shales, oil sands, alcohol, electric cars, etc. </p> <p>Oil shales and sands probably could produce much more energy than all the petroleum ever pumped, but it's expected that oil extracted from them will be more costly than even the current price of oil. Besides that, it will take five years of expensive development before the first oil flows, and investors have been burned by sagging oil prices before. So it's going to take oil prices shooting up even more and staying there to get the development going. The other choices are mostly limited in how much oil they can replace, but could kick in pretty fast.</p> <p>Finally, at present American gasoline prices have less to do with the cost of crude oil than with limited refinery capacity. Thanks to decades of environmental objections to refinery construction, they could have free crude in limitless quantity waiting for processing, and still be unable to meet the demand this coming summer - except by raising the price until people drive less. </p> “The price of oil rises because it’s getting scarcer. The price will not fall until an alternative way to run cars is established.” Several alternative ways to run cars are known. Except for turning waste fryer oil into biodiesel (which is obviously only good for limited quantities), they are all probably more costly than burning petroleum, even now. When the price rises high enough, you’ll see competition from the biodigesters Bridget mentioned, oil shales, oil sands, alcohol, electric cars, etc.

Oil shales and sands probably could produce much more energy than all the petroleum ever pumped, but it’s expected that oil extracted from them will be more costly than even the current price of oil. Besides that, it will take five years of expensive development before the first oil flows, and investors have been burned by sagging oil prices before. So it’s going to take oil prices shooting up even more and staying there to get the development going. The other choices are mostly limited in how much oil they can replace, but could kick in pretty fast.

Finally, at present American gasoline prices have less to do with the cost of crude oil than with limited refinery capacity. Thanks to decades of environmental objections to refinery construction, they could have free crude in limitless quantity waiting for processing, and still be unable to meet the demand this coming summer – except by raising the price until people drive less.

]]> By: BridgetB http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2523 BridgetB Fri, 21 Apr 2006 20:00:43 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2523 <p>FYI: Oil is a renewable resource in the sense that one can produce deisel fuel from any organic matter. I have done business with a company that produces fuel and other useful products from pig waste -- not just the skin and fat from slaughter but the pig's excrement. In time the plant will be totally self-sufficient in that it will produce enough fuel to run the plant and produce large quantities of fuel for sale (millions of barrels a month or more) -- from pig shit. </p> <p>Now if that aint renewable and dammed near infinite I dont know what is.</p> <p>This is not a particularly new idea. In fact the motivation behind the invention of the Deisel engine was to be able to run it on pretty much anything.</p> <p><br /> </p> FYI: Oil is a renewable resource in the sense that one can produce deisel fuel from any organic matter. I have done business with a company that produces fuel and other useful products from pig waste — not just the skin and fat from slaughter but the pig’s excrement. In time the plant will be totally self-sufficient in that it will produce enough fuel to run the plant and produce large quantities of fuel for sale (millions of barrels a month or more) — from pig shit.

Now if that aint renewable and dammed near infinite I dont know what is.

This is not a particularly new idea. In fact the motivation behind the invention of the Deisel engine was to be able to run it on pretty much anything.

]]> By: myshele http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2522 myshele Thu, 20 Apr 2006 14:19:41 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2522 <p>This is obviously a spoof on the idea of peak oil. The writing style is not like typical 1870s writing at all, and the idea of an 'environmental' problem (described using that word) didn't exist until much later. Plus, the arguments don't make sense historically. There were many sources of illumination besides whale oil (including electricity), and the idea of 'horses per family' did not exist. </p> <p>But, it's a cute spoof at any rate :-) </p> <p>(note to moderator - please don't post a simple mailto: link of my e-mail address - thanks!)</p> This is obviously a spoof on the idea of peak oil. The writing style is not like typical 1870s writing at all, and the idea of an ‘environmental’ problem (described using that word) didn’t exist until much later. Plus, the arguments don’t make sense historically. There were many sources of illumination besides whale oil (including electricity), and the idea of ‘horses per family’ did not exist.

But, it’s a cute spoof at any rate :-)

(note to moderator – please don’t post a simple mailto: link of my e-mail address – thanks!)

]]> By: JRH http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2521 JRH Wed, 19 Apr 2006 21:20:24 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2521 <p>Gold costs alot because it's finite. The price of oil rises because it's getting scarcer. The price will not fall until an alternative way to run cars is established. </p> <p>It is understandable why companies that make their profits selling oil want to keep those alternatives from development until the point where it's profitable to develop those alternatives. </p> <p>Perhaps the supply of oil is infinite, but if the perception is that oil is finite, then investors will want to invest in more of it, just like people invest in gold, thereby driving the price of the commodity higher.</p> <p>I haven't heard the term "peak oil" in months.</p> Gold costs alot because it’s finite. The price of oil rises because it’s getting scarcer. The price will not fall until an alternative way to run cars is established.

It is understandable why companies that make their profits selling oil want to keep those alternatives from development until the point where it’s profitable to develop those alternatives.

Perhaps the supply of oil is infinite, but if the perception is that oil is finite, then investors will want to invest in more of it, just like people invest in gold, thereby driving the price of the commodity higher.

I haven’t heard the term “peak oil” in months.

]]> By: honestpartisan http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2520 honestpartisan Wed, 19 Apr 2006 18:05:56 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2520 <p>Good point! I'm so glad we don't have to worry about anything.</p> Good point! I’m so glad we don’t have to worry about anything.

]]> By: Charlie (Colorado) http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2519 Charlie (Colorado) Wed, 19 Apr 2006 13:35:44 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2519 <p>Absolutely freakin' brilliant. </p> Absolutely freakin’ brilliant.

]]> By: BobH http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html/comment-page-1#comment-2518 BobH Tue, 18 Apr 2006 19:10:06 +0000 http://coyote-blog.com/wordpress/2006/04/where_to_put_al.html#comment-2518 <p>I read a similar piece a number of years ago that took the increase in the number of horses in New York City from 1770 to 1870 and projected it out over another century and concluded that Manhattan would be buried under several hundred feet of horsestuff (which some would consider an improvement).</p> <p>Straight-line projections can be a lot of fun.<br /> </p> I read a similar piece a number of years ago that took the increase in the number of horses in New York City from 1770 to 1870 and projected it out over another century and concluded that Manhattan would be buried under several hundred feet of horsestuff (which some would consider an improvement).

Straight-line projections can be a lot of fun.

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