Comments on: OK, There May Be A Housing Bubble

By: lest

lest — Sun, 16 Apr 2006 08:29:19 +0000

Alan Thomas -

Observations coming from inside Bend.

Bend's big chance is to become big enough to be an "inland empire" for the other towns in Central/Eastern Oregon.

Unfortunately most of Oregon's economy is for shit nowadays other than real estate. But if it's going to happen at all in Central/Eastern Oregon, it'll happen in Bend, I'll give you that.

There is a reason, though, that people on the Oregon Trail went THROUGH this area on their way to Western Oregon. Scenery can't be eaten.

By: arcticblueice

arcticblueice — Sun, 26 Mar 2006 04:00:16 +0000

U.S. Real Estate Bubble Burst in 2006 - U.S. Economy: New Home Sales Fall, Residential Inventory at Record Level. Polls show that consumer confidence has dropped significantly. The housing crash has the economy collapsing. The real estate propaganda is pouring out from the media and even the white house as "they" downplay the housing bubble that has burst. Most people do not really own anything in America. Almost everyone I know is just making payments on things that the banks really own such as a home and a car. Americans spend more than they earn and many people who purchased a home between 2001&2006 are in for a really rude awakening. The "artificial equity" game is over people. Housing Bubble Meets Pin. Total collapse of the American economy is looming as home equity debt, bankruptcy, foreclosure and personal insolvency skyrocket in a debt-ridden country. Americans have relied on the false sense of well-being created by the federal government. The illusion of prosperity was devised after 9-11-2001 to spend our way out of recession.
Three obvious indicators revealing the inevitable recession or depression are the growing inventory of houses that continue to pile up throughout the nation, houses are on the market for much longer and are discounted in order for them to be sold. U.S. consumer debt has now increased to more than 2.16 billion dollars. This record debt is largely from Americans living beyond their ability to pay for things they do not need. It is a fact, that Americans spend more than they earn.
In the beginning of 2005, the prophecy of the residential real estate bubble bursting was revealed to this godless, materialistic, backslidden and unrepentant nation. John 8:50 And I seek not mine own glory: there is one that seeketh and judgeth.
The downward spiral of the United States of America: There is plenty of irrefutable evidence on the residential real estate bubble that has come to light. The facts, the greed, the real estate fraud, the indictments, the fines, the convictions, the incarcerations, the record consumer debt, the shattered dreams, the bankruptcies and the foreclosures continue to climb. Millions of citizens of this great nation have chosen to become slaves to debt stemming from "artificial equity" being spent on things that people just cannot afford. Real estate appraisal & mortgage fraud along with poor judgement influenced by media propaganda and driven by historic low interest rates are responsible for a destructive economic downward spiral by creating an insatiable housing "frenzy" that has now ended. This housing bubble could not exist if the rules in mortgage lending were kept in place. For decades, the house pricing standard for qualified homebuyers was limited to 2.5 times your annual income. Today, I have read about folks who qualify for up to 12 times their annual income for an interest only "no doc" home loan. In some states this practice is unlawful and is referred to as predatory lending. The best indicator of the "housing bust" is the growing inventory of houses that continue to pile up throughout the nation. American poverty has incresed for the fourth straight year.

2 Timothy 3:1-5 This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy, Without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good, Traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God; Having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away.
A few thousand years ago the bible states when the Israelites chose to forsake the Lord and his laws, the Lord then allowed for their enemies to conquer & enslave the rebellious nation until they repented. Americans have placed material lust such as their house and car before God. The Word of God clearly says in Romans 13:8 Owe no man anything. There is nothing to misunderstand about that. If you do not have the cash to satisfy your material lust then don't buy it. Do not forsake the Lord and his laws or you will reap the consequences of your disobedience. For there is no respect of persons with God. Our living God of Israel will judge this faithless and perverse nation that has willfully forsaken our Lord and his commandments. The time is fulfilled, and the kingdom of God is at hand: repent ye, and believe the gospel. Watch therefore: for ye know not what hour your Lord doth come. Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap. For the Lord our God is God of gods, and Lord of lords.
The "fractured states of america" used to be known as a nation of "industry". Now most things are made in Communist China and sold here at retailers like Wal-Mart. The only jobs created in large numbers are in the retail or food industry for 6-7 dollars an hour. GM just announced the closure of 12 plants and the "forced retirement" of nearly 130,000 americans. This was all forecasted with the passing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 under the convicted and impeached former President Bill Clinton. Now George Bush has passed (Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) in 2005 that will cost more american jobs. On April 20th in 2005 George Bush signed into law the new bankruptcy laws that went into effect October 17, 2005 to make sure all the americans who dove into debt in the housing bubble would not be able to walk away from their debt.
The only hope for this nation is to repent to our living God of Israel and accept Jesus Christ as their personal savior. This broken nation without borders is flooded with illegal aliens who now are in the streets protesting legislation to make entering the United States illegally a felony. The "homeland" is not safe and the porous borders of America allow millions of criminals to walk right in. America has been invaded without a single shot ever being fired. The middle class has been eradicated and the United States is now building a "caste" system of debt ridden citizens.
The Democrats and Republicans are worthless and have a common agenda of building their own wealth.
This has become obvious with how the average american no longer has a voice that matters in this failed debt-ridden government who just raised their own debt limit to just under 9 trillion dollars. You will only find peace through Jesus Christ our Lord & King. Repent for the kingdom of God is at hand.

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Fri, 24 Mar 2006 00:00:01 +0000

Lest-

Bend pulls just as many people from HI, WA, valley areas of Oregon and Idaho. While I agree that the Bend market may tank around the same time as CA., you're missing the retired demographic and telecommuters. Your overestimated 60% population increase does not take into account the number of people moving into the area to be near thier parents/kids. i.e. My parents just moved out here from VA. And large % of our friends have the same situation. (I assume you're making your observations outside of Bend.)

In terms of locality to a major metropolis you are correct in the observation of isolation. But Bend can attribute industry growth to the fact it sits at a major frieght rail hub going north and south a major trucking thoughroughfare and decent sized airport. One only has to look at the industrial parks around Bend and Redmond to see the growth.

You make your observations and I'll make mine as a resident. Currently, the only MOTIVATing I see is incoming...

By: alan thomas

alan thomas — Tue, 21 Mar 2006 14:45:53 +0000

Those of you worried about a housing bubble, should be aware of the Syracuse Home Equity Protection scheme. This protects against losses in the event that house prices fall. A similar scheme is available for other areas. Take a look at http://www.livepropertyservices.com which covers most parts of the US and Canada.

By: Pete

Pete — Sun, 19 Mar 2006 22:29:55 +0000

Well I am renting and on the sidelines in Scottsdale, Arizona ready to buy on the dip! I will wait till it’s the right time to buy!

By: Bend, Oregon Housing Bubble

Bend, Oregon Housing Bubble — Tue, 07 Mar 2006 02:27:01 +0000

Bend, Oregon Housing Bubble Blog: http://bendoregonbubble.blogspot.com/

By: Randall Wilson

Randall Wilson — Wed, 15 Feb 2006 04:21:27 +0000

Medical profession aside, it is typically a good intidator that a market is overinflated when every novice is advising that it is time to buy in. How many people were saying Buy Yahoo just days before the crash? In most markets, if everybody is doing something, your greates return will be realized from doing the opposite.

-Randy
http://www.4mysales.com

By: jay prabhu

jay prabhu — Sat, 14 Jan 2006 00:32:40 +0000

Housing bubble?

This housing market run up is much like the Japanese housing bubble cry many economists.

In reality the housing market in Japan is very different when compared to the United States and indeed to rest of the world.

The Japanese population is slowly dying out; there has been practically no growth in population in Japan. Further US housing prices are the lowest when compared to home size and purchasing power of the US consumer.

They forget to tell you that the Japanese population increased by only 4 million from 1990-2005 where as US population increased by 45 million in the same period.

Further the job growth in Japan is anemic whereas the US continues to add new jobs at a good pace.

Many of these doom and gloom gurus worry that homeowners have refinanced their homes and spent the money. A portion of the money definitely has been spent on vacations and consumer non-durables, but a larger portion would have gone for home improvements like energy efficient heating and air-conditioning, energy efficient windows and siding, roof systems etc. Further, some of this money could have been used to reduce high interest credit cards and for funding college education for kids- future consumers with higher incomes.

Is it possible these housing bubble forecasters and gurus are really stockbrokers and analysts hoping you will sell your home and invest in stocks and bonds so that they can earn a commission. Wonder what they plan to do with their bonus earned in January 2006; will they buy stocks and bonds or homes? We shall know soon.

Read the full article at www.NoFeeMLS.com

By: Porky Burgers

Porky Burgers — Fri, 28 Oct 2005 23:58:57 +0000

Wicki: Bend, Oregon will be hit twice as hard as California and it will happen at exactly the same time. Where do you think all the people moving to Bend come from? California. Where do you think they get the money to buy a place in Bend? From selling their house in California. California at least has some industry and non-housing-related jobs to fall back on. One-third of Bend builds houses; one-third sells houses (real estate agents) and the other third is looking for a job (and most of them will end up trying their hand at being either contractors or real estate agents). The minute the California real estate market tanks (and even you seem to expect that), people will stop moving to Bend and the whole house of cards is going to come tumbling down.

Bend isn't a suburb - it isn't even an exurb. Bend is a geographically isolated settlement. You have to drive at least 2 hours (and that's when the roads are clear and not snowed-in) just to get to a town with 100,000 people in it (Salem or Eugene). But just because Bend is in the middle of nowhere doesn't mean its economy and housing market aren't connected to the rest of the country, and especially California.

Another problem with Bend is that more than 60% of the population has moved there within the last 10 years. They don't have the roots there. The second things get bad they will MOTIVATE out of there like you won't believe.

By: lest

lest — Sat, 01 Oct 2005 03:18:08 +0000

http://campedi.com/wwwboard/messages/2857.htm complimentwhosewondered