ABSOLUTELY LIKELY

It’s time to start talking about the 2008 election. “But Sean,” you’re moaning, “isn’t it a bit early for that? Why talk about 2008 now?” Glad you asked. There are two reasons:

Because politics is more interesting than governing, much as baseball is…

Nice catch: Coyote Blog notes that the presidential election of 2008 will almost surely have a characteristic that no presidential election has had since 1952.

Nice catch: Coyote Blog notes that the presidential election of 2008 will almost surely have a characteristic that no presidential election has had since 1952.

Nice catch: Coyote Blog notes that the presidential election of 2008 will almost surely have a characteristic that no presidential election has had since 1952.

1. Qualifications. He’s qualified and will have completed two full terms as governor of the country’s fourth largest state. As a side note, he will be term limited in 2006. That gives him two full years to focus solely on running for president.

2. Stance on Issues. He’s almost perfectly placed on the issues and his record. He’s a solid conservative that appeals to the base, but not so far out in right field that he is seen as extreme to the more moderate Republicans. He will be a great unifier of the party.

3. Charisma. He’s good looking, very charismatic and a good speaker. He’s actually a much better speaker and debater than the current president.

4. Name Recognition. Only those in comas do not know the “Bush” name in American politics. It won’t take long for “Jeb” to be well known as well.

5. Endorsements. As president, George W. Bush has HUGE influence over the Republican party. I guarantee you that the so-called “Republican establishment” will overwelmingly endorse Jeb Bush at a very early stage of the primary campaign.

6. Media Attention. See #4 (name recognition) and #5 (endorsements).

7. Fund Raising. Again, see #4 (name recognition), #5 (endorsements), and #6 (media attention). However, there’s one more. He will get President Bush’s record setting donor list. I guarantee Jeb Bush will be second to none in money available to him in the campaign.

8. Electability. Jeb Bush will be seen as a very strong candidate for those Republicans who are primarily concerned about winning the next election. I think this will be a bigger than usual concern when you consider Hillary Clinton will be seen as the likely opponent. Why is Jeb Bush so electable? Again, look at #1 through #7 above. However, there are additional reasons. What do Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and G.W. Bush have in common prior to being president? They were all governors. That will be 28 of 32 years as president by former governors — not former senators, mayors, or national security advisors. The only other governor I see being mentioned is Arnold and he’s not eligible unless they ammend the Consitution. Additionally, the other reason that Jeb Bush would be great from an electability standpoint is the state of Florida. It’s the largest swing state in the nation. Jeb carried the state in his re-election for governor by 14 points. Putting Florida in the win column from the start allows the Republican ticket to focus its resources on other crucial swing states.

As for the vice presidential candidate, I see several candidates:

Condi Rice – Like most governors running for president, Jeb Bush’s one weakness will be a lack of foreign affairs experience. Condi Rice would be a great compliment for that. From an electability standpoint, Rice also has the advantage of being an African American women. Both are voting blocks that tend to side with the Democrats. Being a woman could be particularly important in 2008 since she would be the counter to Hillary Clinton who will inevitably argue the “historic” impact of her being elected. The biggest negative is Rice’s lack of non-foreign policy experience. Would she be seen as having the experience and the “gravitas” to be president or is she seen just as a foreign policy wonk?

Tom Ridge – I think he’s under-rated in many of these lists. He has a ton of advantages. He’s highly qualified being a former congressman, governor of the fifth largest state, and director of Homeland Security. I think the last is the most important. With the threat of terrorism, Ridge goes a long ways to reassure people that the country will remain safe if the Republican ticket is elected. Ridge also has extensive experience responding to tough questions from reporters. Another very big advantage to Ridge is Pennsylvania. It’s the fifth largest state and a big swing state that narrowly went for Gore and Kerry. Once again, think of a Jeb Bush/Tom Ridge ticket. You would have candidates from Florida and Pennsylvania on the ticket. Win those two states and it’s a near death blow to the Democrats. The big negative is that he has some pro-choice votes while in the Congress years ago. That will upset some in the base. However, a long time has passed, and he could probably “evolve” his position on the issue if he wanted.

John McCain – Polls consistently show that he’s extremely popular with Independents and moderate Democrats. He’s a great campaigner. However, there’s some negatives. Arizona isn’t the swing state it once was. The Republicans will likely win Arizona without McCain. Another disadvantage is age. Will he be seen as too old in 2008? Of course, some could argue age as a plus given a fairly youthful candidate leading the ticket. The other disadvantage is that McCain might run for president in 2008. If so, there could be heated words between him and Jeb. I know it doesn’t eliminate him (Reagan/Bush, Kerry/Edwards, etc.), but if the primary race gets nasty, it could be a negative for McCain.

Arnold Schwartzeneggar – He’s obviously a big celebrity and would be great on the campaign trail. If he could pull California to the Republicans, that would be a death blow to the Democrats. However, I don’t think he would be enough to sway liberal California. Realistically, what they would be hoping for is to make the state competitive. If so, that would mean the Democrats would have to waste alot of time and money defending a state that had been given to them for free in the past. There’s some negatives. Bush may want to opt for an older candidate with a longer resume in politics. Arnold, being a governor like Jeb, also lacks significant foreign policy experience. The final drawback is that Arnold may be too moderate on social issues. His stance on social issues would upset some of the base.

Rudy Giuliani – I’m listing him since he has been mentioned so much. I don’t think he’ll be the pick though. The advantage is that he’s a great speaker. He may do well with swing voters. The problem is that he’s liberal on social issues. Being pro-abortion will upset the base. He also lacks experience in Washington to balance the ticket. Being a “mayor” could be seen as an inferior qualification to senator, governor, cabinet secretary, etc. Additionally, I think New York is a state that is a lost cause for the Republicans. It’s heavily in the Democrat column, particularly with “New Yorker” Hillary Clinton leading the Democrat ticket. I just don’t see him as the vice president pick.

So, what’s happening now? Read Warren Meyer’s post, Something Unusual Will Happen in 2008. [Via InstaPundit.] You will find my take on the issue of Republican candidates in 2008, by reading my post THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE IS NOT AN ALTERNATIVE.

The …

I think both parties will swing back to their bases in 2008, which means the Rudy scenario is a no-go in the GOP. Rudy is too suspect on abortion, gay rights, etc., to be acceptable to the right wing. which will wield absolute power after their kingmaking role this year. Giuliani’s also prone to Bob Dole disease–an irresistable compulsion to utter the uncomfortable truth at the most inopportune time. Ideologues don’t like uncomfortable truths. It’s a sign of Satan.

But the bigger story is that the Republicans may be in the position of having just about everybody who is anybody in the party either un-nominatable (because they are not ideologically pure enough) or unelectable (because they are too ideologically pure). Condi Rice is an interesting choice but there is no real indication that she wants the job (though she must be intrigued at the possibilities) and her reputation will rise or fall with the success of the war in Iraq with which she is inextricably linked. If she decides she wants it–and has a successful Middle East policy behind her–she may be an unstoppable force.

Jeb Bush is a non-starter because succeeding his brother would be too dynastic, even for Republicans. McCain may be the fall-back but he’ll be 72 (of course, Dole was 73 when he ran in 96, but look what happened to him) and remains suspect and much too broad-minded for party base tastes.

Bill Frist? His rather ham-handed leadership of the Senate to this point is a strike against him, but he could emerge.

Forget about Arnold. Not only is he way too liberal but he’ll never get the Constitutional Amendment he needs to overturn the foreign-born exclusion–why would any rival in the GOP, nevermind any Democrat–give him the chance to run?

George Pataki is hamstrung by at least two factors: too liberal and about as exciting as watching Laura Bush read a library book.

There’s also Tom Ridge but he’s seen as a lightweight with no real power base by insiders and as that doofus who announces color-code changes by the public at large. He would need a major makeover to install serious gravitas (calling Dr. Rove).

If I had to guess I would think the eventual nominee will be a governor who is at present an unknown.

One scenario I don’t see is Cheny being replaced, unless his ticker gives out. Bush is too loyal. If Cheney should keel over, it will put Bush in a very uncomfortable position: in effect picking his successor, since the veep automatically becomes the 2008 front-runner. That is sure to piss off everyone not picked but interested in the job. And that in turn will make governing as a lame duck even harder. Of course, he could punt and name someone like Rumsfeld or Powell as a place-holder.

As for the Dems, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards start off as the co-front-runners, and my money’s on Hillary. She’s a goddess to the party base and has been busy burnishing her moderate credentials (pro-war, etc.). She comes with a lot of baggage in that she will electrify the GOP base against her but that may be a plus to pissed-off Dems. I think Edwards’s star is as high now as it will ever get. I think he will more blame for this loss than the running mate usually gets because he…well, basically, he contributed squat to the campaign other than a passable performance against Dr. Evil in the VP debate. The fact that the ticket got skunked in the entire South and border states means he delivered nothing Kerry couldn’t have won without him.

Yeah, Evan Bayh is a possibility but do you really see him besting Hillary in the early primaries, when the base is at its most powerful? Neither do I.

Howard Dean is an interesting wild card. Four years removed from the scream, seasoned and chastened, he could be a real factor if Iraq proves his original contention about the war right.

Another possibility–though I seriously doubt he’ll do much more than make a fool of himself–is Gore.

One thing IS pretty certain. Barack Obama will be everybody’s choice for running mate, provided he doesn’t do anything stupid between now and then.